Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Davis, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
8.1% to 25.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal3 metrics
81
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason2.80
ERA current pace3.52
ERA rolling p503.05
Observed weight35%
ERA
1.26 2.10 3.05 3.99 4.84
FIP
2.19 2.93 3.74 4.56 5.29
K%
16.6% 19.4% 22.6% 25.8% 28.6%
BB%
5.7% 7.7% 9.9% 12.0% 14.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.15
80
ERA3.52
68
BB%12.6%
14 -31 vs proj
K%21.3%
44
xwOBA allowed0.288
79
Barrel allowed6.0%
73 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
78
Hard-hit allowed42.2%
23
Whiff%20.6%
31 -18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+105
75
Mithrandir Stuff+106
84
Slider Stuff+106
83
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 62%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Davis, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.288 2026-09-12: 0.2872026-09-13: 0.2872026-09-14: 0.2872026-09-18: 0.2872026-09-19: 0.2872026-09-20: 0.2872026-09-21: 0.2872026-09-22: 0.2872026-09-23: 0.2872026-09-24: 0.2872026-09-25: 0.2872026-09-26: 0.288 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Davis, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Davis, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 62.3%Slider: 31.3%Split-Finger: 6.4% FF62% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 62%SL 31%FS 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Davis, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 62% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphSlider: 31% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.5 mphSL88 mphSplit-Finger: 6% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.0 mphFS86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 65.9% 242 105 qualified
SL 34.1% 125 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 58%, Slider 31%, Changeup 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.40
K% Δ-0.008
Sample31.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.4----
Batters Faced126----
K%22.0%8.1% to 25.8%+/- 8.9%
BB%9.3%1.3% to 13.4%+/- 6.1%
Whiff%22.5%8.0% to 29.5%+/- 10.8%
HR/91.160.00 to 1.55+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.2840.010 to 0.293+/- 0.142
Barrel% Allowed7.5%0.1% to 8.9%+/- 4.4%
ERA3.920.00 to 4.85+/- 2.42
FIP3.760.94 to 5.13+/- 2.10
WHIP1.1570.150 to 1.353+/- 0.601
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

4 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%8.5%
BB%3.2%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

3 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%9.0%
BB%2.4%
Barrel0.1%