Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Johnson, Ryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.8% K%
Range
15.9% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal4 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.35
ERA current pace4.88
ERA rolling p504.69
Observed weight65%
ERA
2.95 3.78 4.69 5.61 6.43
FIP
3.86 4.23 4.65 5.06 5.43
K%
17.3% 18.7% 20.2% 21.8% 23.1%
BB%
6.8% 7.6% 8.5% 9.4% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
47
ERA4.88
29
BB%9.4%
45 -16 vs proj
K%18.9%
29 -17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.337
25 -37 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.6%
19 -15 vs proj
Fastball velo92.6
21
Hard-hit allowed35.7%
71
Whiff%22.8%
52
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+104
75
Mithrandir Stuff+102
47
Slider Stuff+101
46
Sinker Stuff+97
18
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Johnson, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.337 2026-09-12: 0.3472026-09-13: 0.3472026-09-14: 0.3472026-09-18: 0.3432026-09-19: 0.3432026-09-20: 0.3432026-09-21: 0.3372026-09-22: 0.3372026-09-23: 0.3372026-09-24: 0.3372026-09-25: 0.3372026-09-26: 0.337 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Johnson, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 37.8%Sweeper: 22.9%Split-Finger: 20.9%Sinker: 18.0%Slider: 0.2%4-Seam Fastball: 0.2% FC38% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 38%ST 23%FS 21%SI 18%SL 0%FF 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 38% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.8 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 80.7 mphST81 mphSplit-Finger: 21% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.6 mphFS85 mphSinker: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.5 mphSI93 mphSlider: 0% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.3 mphSL84 mph4-Seam Fastball: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.5 mphFF94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 53.1% 416 104 qualified
SL 31.3% 245 101 qualified
SI 15.6% 122 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 44%, Sinker 22%, Sweeper 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.51
K% Δ-0.028
Sample103.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.8----
Batters Faced299----
K%21.8%15.9% to 30.1%+/- 7.1%
BB%8.1%3.6% to 10.6%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%22.8%17.7% to 28.0%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.220.91 to 2.61+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3040.217 to 0.333+/- 0.058
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.1% to 10.8%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.372.39 to 7.10+/- 2.35
FIP4.122.86 to 5.00+/- 1.07
WHIP1.3761.123 to 1.742+/- 0.309
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

36 career BF

xwOBA0.213
K%16.5%
BB%5.3%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

56 career BF

xwOBA0.195
K%18.2%
BB%4.1%
Barrel6.6%