Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Chandler, Bubba

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.9% K%
Range
18.9% to 31.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace4.85
ERA rolling p504.47
Observed weight50%
ERA
3.18 3.79 4.47 5.15 5.76
FIP
3.50 3.89 4.34 4.78 5.18
K%
20.1% 21.7% 23.6% 25.4% 27.1%
BB%
8.4% 9.4% 10.6% 11.7% 12.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%15.3%
4 -74 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.6%
28
Fastball velo98.4
97
Hard-hit allowed36.3%
69
K%22.0%
49
Whiff%21.6%
38 -31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.337
30
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+108
90
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Chandler, Bubba · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3482026-05-19: 0.3482026-05-21: 0.3482026-05-23: 0.3352026-05-24: 0.3342026-05-25: 0.3342026-05-26: 0.3342026-05-28: 0.3372026-05-29: 0.3372026-05-30: 0.3372026-05-31: 0.3372026-06-01: 0.337 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Chandler, Bubba · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Chandler, Bubba · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 51.4%Changeup: 19.0%Slider: 12.8%Sweeper: 7.8%Sinker: 5.7%Curveball: 3.2% MIX FF 51%CH 19%SL 13%ST 8%SI 6%CU 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Chandler, Bubba · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 0.8FFCH: HB -0.8, IVB 2.1CHSL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.6SLST: HB -0.4, IVB 2.9STSI: HB 0.6, IVB 1.2SICU: HB -0.0, IVB 3.2CUPO: HB 0.5, IVB 1.0PO horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 51.4% 483 107 qualified
SL 20.6% 193 106 limited sample
CH 19.1% 179 111 limited sample
SI 5.8% 54 97 limited sample
CB 3.2% 30 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 54%, Changeup 23%, Slider 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.00
K% Δ-0.008
Sample52.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.4----
Batters Faced261----
K%22.9%18.9% to 31.0%+/- 6.0%
BB%6.7%2.2% to 8.7%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%25.7%21.0% to 31.6%+/- 5.3%
HR/90.970.39 to 1.58+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3200.257 to 0.352+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.4%4.3% to 13.1%+/- 4.4%
ERA3.852.37 to 6.03+/- 1.83
FIP3.612.16 to 4.54+/- 1.19
WHIP1.2380.679 to 1.469+/- 0.395
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

61 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%20.2%
BB%3.0%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

63 career BF

xwOBA0.244
K%20.9%
BB%2.5%
Barrel8.5%