Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Chandler, Bubba

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.9% K%
Range
18.9% to 31.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
30
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
46
Arsenal6 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace4.77
ERA rolling p504.53
Observed weight64%
ERA
3.18 3.82 4.53 5.23 5.87
FIP
3.34 3.75 4.21 4.67 5.08
K%
19.3% 20.5% 22.0% 23.4% 24.7%
BB%
8.7% 9.5% 10.5% 11.4% 12.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
26
ERA4.77
30
BB%13.1%
12 -67 vs proj
K%20.2%
34 -19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.314
50
Barrel allowed6.5%
69 +30 vs proj
Fastball velo98.5
96
Hard-hit allowed37.5%
60
Whiff%21.3%
36 -35 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+110
96
Fastball Stuff+107
86
Mithrandir Stuff+108
90
Slider Stuff+106
80
Curveball Stuff+103
70
Sinker Stuff+98
25
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Chandler, Bubba · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.314 2026-07-06: 0.3162026-07-07: 0.3202026-07-08: 0.3202026-07-09: 0.3202026-07-10: 0.3202026-07-11: 0.3202026-07-12: 0.3202026-07-13: 0.3152026-07-14: 0.3152026-07-15: 0.3152026-07-16: 0.3142026-07-17: 0.314 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Chandler, Bubba · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Chandler, Bubba · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.9%Slider: 18.7%Changeup: 16.9%Sinker: 7.0%Sweeper: 6.2%Curveball: 3.4% FF48% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 48%SL 19%CH 17%SI 7%ST 6%CU 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Chandler, Bubba · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 98.5 mphFF99 mphSlider: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 90.2 mphSL90 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.8 mphCH92 mphSinker: 7% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 98.0 mphSI98 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.6 mphST88 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.5 mphCU86 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.9 mphPO95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 51.2% 576 107 qualified
SL 22.3% 251 106 qualified
CH 18.1% 204 110 qualified
SI 5.3% 60 98 limited sample
CB 2.9% 33 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 54%, Changeup 23%, Slider 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.92
K% Δ-0.027
Sample94.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.0----
Batters Faced259----
K%22.9%18.9% to 31.0%+/- 6.0%
BB%6.7%2.2% to 8.7%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%25.7%21.0% to 31.6%+/- 5.3%
HR/90.970.39 to 1.58+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3200.257 to 0.352+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.4%4.3% to 13.1%+/- 4.4%
ERA3.852.37 to 6.03+/- 1.83
FIP3.612.16 to 4.54+/- 1.19
WHIP1.2380.680 to 1.469+/- 0.395
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

61 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%20.2%
BB%3.0%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

63 career BF

xwOBA0.244
K%20.9%
BB%2.5%
Barrel8.5%