Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Chandler, Bubba

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.9% K%
Range
18.9% to 31.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
36
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal6 metrics
78
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace4.28
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight74%
ERA
2.80 3.48 4.23 4.99 5.66
FIP
3.14 3.58 4.08 4.57 5.01
K%
19.7% 20.8% 21.9% 23.0% 24.1%
BB%
8.9% 9.6% 10.3% 11.1% 11.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
35
ERA4.28
44
BB%11.9%
19 -63 vs proj
K%20.8%
41 -15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.318
44
Barrel allowed6.1%
73 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo98.2
95
Hard-hit allowed39.2%
44
Whiff%20.3%
29 -44 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+107
84
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+107
90
Slider Stuff+106
82
Curveball Stuff+104
73
Sinker Stuff+103
53
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Chandler, Bubba · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.318 2026-09-12: 0.3092026-09-13: 0.3092026-09-14: 0.3162026-09-18: 0.3162026-09-19: 0.3162026-09-20: 0.3162026-09-21: 0.3162026-09-22: 0.3162026-09-23: 0.3162026-09-24: 0.3162026-09-25: 0.3162026-09-26: 0.318 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Chandler, Bubba · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Chandler, Bubba · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.4%Slider: 20.7%Changeup: 14.3%Sinker: 8.1%Curveball: 4.5%Sweeper: 4.0% FF48% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 48%SL 21%CH 14%SI 8%CU 5%ST 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Chandler, Bubba · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 98.3 mphFF98 mphSlider: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 91.1 mphSL91 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.4 mphCH91 mphSinker: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.7 mphSI98 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.8 mphCU87 mphSweeper: 4% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.8 mphST88 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.9 mphPO95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.2% 913 107 qualified
SL 22.3% 405 106 qualified
CH 14.7% 268 107 qualified
SI 7.8% 141 103 limited sample
CB 5.0% 90 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 54%, Changeup 23%, Slider 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.43
K% Δ-0.021
Sample153.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.1----
Batters Faced263----
K%22.9%18.9% to 31.0%+/- 6.0%
BB%6.7%2.2% to 8.7%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%25.7%21.0% to 31.6%+/- 5.3%
HR/90.970.39 to 1.58+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3200.257 to 0.352+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.4%4.3% to 13.1%+/- 4.4%
ERA3.852.37 to 6.03+/- 1.83
FIP3.612.16 to 4.54+/- 1.19
WHIP1.2390.680 to 1.469+/- 0.395
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

61 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%20.2%
BB%3.0%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

63 career BF

xwOBA0.244
K%20.9%
BB%2.5%
Barrel8.5%