Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Bachman, Sam

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.6% K%
Range
13.3% to 27.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
37
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal5 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace4.14
ERA rolling p504.05
Observed weight49%
ERA
2.42 3.19 4.05 4.91 5.68
FIP
3.18 3.72 4.31 4.91 5.44
K%
17.5% 19.4% 21.5% 23.6% 25.5%
BB%
8.6% 9.9% 11.2% 12.6% 13.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.53
19
ERA4.14
48
BB%13.0%
10 -33 vs proj
K%22.6%
54
xwOBA allowed0.309
54
Barrel allowed8.0%
41 -34 vs proj
Fastball velo98.6
98
Hard-hit allowed33.3%
85
Whiff%31.9%
96 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+103
53
Slider Stuff+103
64
Changeup Stuff+111
97
Fastball Stuff+97
17
Sinker Stuff+95
12
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bachman, Sam · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.309 2026-09-12: 0.2992026-09-13: 0.2992026-09-14: 0.2992026-09-18: 0.2992026-09-19: 0.2992026-09-20: 0.2992026-09-21: 0.3022026-09-22: 0.3022026-09-23: 0.3082026-09-24: 0.3082026-09-25: 0.3082026-09-26: 0.309 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bachman, Sam · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bachman, Sam · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 50.8%Sinker: 30.3%Changeup: 15.1%4-Seam Fastball: 3.4%Sweeper: 0.5% SL51% · 88 mphprimary pitch SL 51%SI 30%CH 15%FF 3%ST 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bachman, Sam · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 51% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 88.4 mphSL88 mphSinker: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 98.6 mphSI99 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 91.7 mphCH92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 3% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 98.4 mphFF98 mphSweeper: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 86.4 mphST86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 54.8% 292 103 qualified
SI 29.3% 156 95 limited sample
CH 13.7% 73 111 limited sample
FB 2.3% 12 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 55%, Sinker 34%, Changeup 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.16
K% Δ-0.010
Sample49.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.0----
Batters Faced144----
K%23.6%13.3% to 27.6%+/- 7.1%
BB%9.6%5.1% to 13.8%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%24.7%18.4% to 30.9%+/- 6.2%
HR/90.970.00 to 1.44+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3080.235 to 0.354+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed5.9%0.1% to 8.4%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.982.23 to 6.84+/- 2.31
FIP3.802.06 to 5.26+/- 1.60
WHIP1.3571.016 to 1.688+/- 0.336
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

71 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%14.7%
BB%10.7%
Barrel1.0%
vs RHH

114 career BF

xwOBA0.245
K%15.4%
BB%7.1%
Barrel1.0%