Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Bachman, Sam

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.6% K%
Range
13.3% to 27.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace2.42
ERA rolling p503.43
Observed weight34%
ERA
1.72 2.53 3.43 4.33 5.14
FIP
2.54 3.10 3.72 4.35 4.91
K%
17.2% 19.5% 22.1% 24.8% 27.1%
BB%
7.2% 8.7% 10.3% 12.0% 13.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.9%
16 -21 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.1%
90 +16 vs proj
Fastball velo98.7
99
Hard-hit allowed29.7%
94
K%25.4%
71
Whiff%33.7%
97 +34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.259
89 +34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bachman, Sam · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2562026-05-19: 0.2562026-05-21: 0.2442026-05-23: 0.2442026-05-24: 0.2442026-05-25: 0.2462026-05-26: 0.2462026-05-28: 0.2472026-05-29: 0.2542026-05-30: 0.2582026-05-31: 0.2582026-06-01: 0.259 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bachman, Sam · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 34%34%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bachman, Sam · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 52.5%Sinker: 31.7%Changeup: 15.8% MIX SL 52%SI 32%CH 16% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bachman, Sam · 2026 arsenal snapshot SL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.0SLSI: HB 0.1, IVB 1.7SICH: HB -1.2, IVB 2.9CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 54.8% 211 105 qualified
SI 31.2% 120 93 limited sample
CH 14.0% 54 110 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 55%, Sinker 34%, Changeup 9%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.55
K% Δ+0.018
Sample29.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.1----
Batters Faced149----
K%23.6%13.3% to 27.6%+/- 7.1%
BB%9.5%5.1% to 13.8%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%24.7%18.4% to 30.9%+/- 6.2%
HR/90.970.00 to 1.44+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3080.235 to 0.354+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed5.9%0.1% to 8.4%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.972.23 to 6.84+/- 2.31
FIP3.802.06 to 5.26+/- 1.60
WHIP1.3541.017 to 1.688+/- 0.336
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

71 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%14.7%
BB%10.7%
Barrel1.0%
vs RHH

114 career BF

xwOBA0.245
K%15.4%
BB%7.1%
Barrel1.0%