Bachman, Sam
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.96 |
| ERA current pace | 2.42 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.43 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 54.8% | 211 | 105 | qualified |
| SI | 31.2% | 120 | 93 | limited sample |
| CH | 14.0% | 54 | 110 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.55 |
| K% Δ | +0.018 |
| Sample | 29.0 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 33.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 149 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.6% | 13.3% to 27.6% | +/- 7.1% |
| BB% | 9.5% | 5.1% to 13.8% | +/- 4.3% |
| Whiff% | 24.7% | 18.4% to 30.9% | +/- 6.2% |
| HR/9 | 0.97 | 0.00 to 1.44 | +/- 0.72 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.308 | 0.235 to 0.354 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 5.9% | 0.1% to 8.4% | +/- 4.1% |
| ERA | 3.97 | 2.23 to 6.84 | +/- 2.31 |
| FIP | 3.80 | 2.06 to 5.26 | +/- 1.60 |
| WHIP | 1.354 | 1.017 to 1.688 | +/- 0.336 |
71 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.260 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 10.7% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |
114 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.245 |
| K% | 15.4% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |