Black, Mason
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.03 |
| ERA current pace | 2.70 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.87 |
| Observed weight | 12% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 42.1% | 61 | 110 | limited sample |
| SI | 25.5% | 37 | 102 | limited sample |
| FB | 15.9% | 23 | 101 | limited sample |
| FC | 9.7% | 14 | 78 | limited sample |
| CH | 6.9% | 10 | 110 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 32.0 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 149 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.4% | 14.0% to 29.6% | +/- 7.8% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 3.6% to 11.2% | +/- 3.8% |
| Whiff% | 19.2% | 10.1% to 24.4% | +/- 7.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.45 | 0.48 to 2.29 | +/- 0.91 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.329 | 0.261 to 0.403 | +/- 0.071 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.2% | 3.8% to 12.5% | +/- 4.3% |
| ERA | 4.34 | 2.46 to 7.28 | +/- 2.41 |
| FIP | 4.04 | 2.70 to 6.67 | +/- 1.99 |
| WHIP | 1.360 | 1.061 to 1.793 | +/- 0.366 |
85 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 15.7% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 8.0% |
103 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.265 |
| K% | 16.6% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 8.0% |