Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Jobe, Jackson

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.8% K%
Range
13.1% to 26.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
66
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal7 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace3.89
ERA rolling p503.97
Observed weight45%
ERA
2.70 3.30 3.97 4.64 5.24
FIP
3.50 3.85 4.24 4.63 4.98
K%
18.0% 19.8% 21.9% 24.0% 25.9%
BB%
6.4% 7.2% 8.2% 9.2% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
74
ERA3.89
55
BB%8.2%
58
K%26.3%
79 +45 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.302
65 +36 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.1%
24
Fastball velo96.9
87
Hard-hit allowed38.0%
53
Whiff%21.3%
39
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+104
62
Mithrandir Stuff+104
71
Changeup Stuff+96
18
Curveball Stuff+101
38
Cutter Stuff+103
70
Sinker Stuff+106
77
Slider Stuff+108
92
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Jobe, Jackson · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.302 2026-09-12: 0.3422026-09-13: 0.3422026-09-14: 0.3242026-09-18: 0.3242026-09-19: 0.3242026-09-20: 0.3242026-09-21: 0.3122026-09-22: 0.3122026-09-23: 0.3122026-09-24: 0.3122026-09-25: 0.3122026-09-26: 0.302 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Jobe, Jackson · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jobe, Jackson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.3%Slider: 25.9%Sinker: 18.5%Changeup: 10.2%Curveball: 9.7%Knuckle Curve: 2.7% FF31% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 31%SL 26%SI 19%CH 10%CU 10%KC 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jobe, Jackson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 97.6 mphFF98 mphSlider: 26% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.4 mphSL89 mphSinker: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 95.8 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 86.0 mphCU86 mphKnuckle Curve: 3% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 81.1 mphKC81 mphCutter: 2% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.7 mphFC94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.5% 203 104 qualified
SL 23.6% 139 108 limited sample
SI 17.8% 105 106 limited sample
CB 11.5% 68 101 limited sample
CH 10.7% 63 96 limited sample
FC 1.9% 11 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Slider 30%, Changeup 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.83
K% Δ+0.064
Sample45.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings134.3----
Batters Faced599----
K%19.8%13.1% to 26.0%+/- 6.4%
BB%9.3%6.1% to 11.4%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%21.8%16.8% to 27.7%+/- 5.4%
HR/91.520.82 to 1.98+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3320.261 to 0.341+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.1%4.6% to 9.9%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.722.05 to 5.62+/- 1.79
FIP4.803.11 to 5.19+/- 1.04
WHIP1.4060.993 to 1.638+/- 0.322
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

124 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%14.5%
BB%8.5%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

139 career BF

xwOBA0.238
K%15.4%
BB%7.1%
Barrel5.8%