Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Lord, Brad

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.3% K%
Range
16.6% to 25.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Balanced starter Age 26 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal5 metrics
68
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace3.88
ERA rolling p503.92
Observed weight53%
ERA
2.87 3.37 3.92 4.47 4.97
FIP
3.39 3.73 4.11 4.48 4.82
K%
18.3% 19.6% 21.0% 22.4% 23.7%
BB%
6.4% 7.1% 8.0% 8.8% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.21
69
ERA3.88
53
BB%8.5%
53 -17 vs proj
K%21.4%
42
xwOBA allowed0.316
47 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.5%
80 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo94.4
49
Hard-hit allowed40.3%
41
Whiff%18.7%
16
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+105
75
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Slider Stuff+102
49
Changeup Stuff+100
34
Sinker Stuff+109
96
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lord, Brad · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.316 2026-07-06: 0.3072026-07-07: 0.3162026-07-08: 0.3162026-07-09: 0.3162026-07-10: 0.3162026-07-11: 0.3162026-07-12: 0.3162026-07-13: 0.3162026-07-14: 0.3162026-07-15: 0.3162026-07-16: 0.3162026-07-17: 0.316 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lord, Brad · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lord, Brad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.5%Sinker: 23.1%Slider: 20.5%Sweeper: 14.4%Changeup: 5.6% FF36% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 36%SI 23%SL 20%ST 14%CH 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lord, Brad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.5 mphFF95 mphSinker: 23% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 94.3 mphSI94 mphSlider: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.2 mphSL85 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.2 mphST83 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.1% 282 105 qualified
SL 35.2% 275 102 qualified
SI 22.8% 178 109 limited sample
CH 5.9% 46 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.309 vs 0.281 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 48%, Slider 20%, Sinker 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.52
K% Δ+0.021
Sample63.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.0----
Batters Faced303----
K%19.3%16.6% to 25.8%+/- 4.6%
BB%7.4%5.6% to 10.4%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%19.4%16.5% to 23.2%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.380.98 to 2.02+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.3320.292 to 0.364+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.2% to 10.6%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.403.38 to 6.34+/- 1.48
FIP4.333.47 to 5.48+/- 1.01
WHIP1.2831.091 to 1.559+/- 0.234
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

275 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%18.3%
BB%8.0%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

285 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%17.0%
BB%5.6%
Barrel5.6%