Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Lord, Brad

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.4% K%
Range
16.6% to 25.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Balanced starter Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal5 metrics
64
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace3.78
ERA rolling p503.85
Observed weight61%
ERA
2.78 3.29 3.85 4.42 4.93
FIP
3.39 3.74 4.12 4.50 4.85
K%
18.9% 20.1% 21.3% 22.6% 23.8%
BB%
7.0% 7.7% 8.5% 9.3% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.21
70
ERA3.78
60
BB%9.2%
47 -25 vs proj
K%21.8%
47 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.306
59 +31 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
74 +30 vs proj
Fastball velo94.5
51
Hard-hit allowed36.9%
61
Whiff%17.5%
10
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+105
76
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Sinker Stuff+110
95
Slider Stuff+101
43
Changeup Stuff+98
22
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lord, Brad · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.306 2026-09-13: 0.3072026-09-14: 0.3072026-09-18: 0.3062026-09-19: 0.3062026-09-20: 0.3062026-09-21: 0.3062026-09-22: 0.3062026-09-23: 0.3062026-09-24: 0.3052026-09-25: 0.3052026-09-26: 0.3052026-09-27: 0.306 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lord, Brad · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lord, Brad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.9%Sinker: 25.0%Slider: 19.2%Sweeper: 14.0%Changeup: 4.9% FF37% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 37%SI 25%SL 19%ST 14%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lord, Brad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphSinker: 25% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphSlider: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.2 mphSL85 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.4 mphST83 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.9% 412 105 qualified
SL 32.7% 365 101 qualified
SI 25.5% 285 110 qualified
CH 4.8% 54 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.309 vs 0.281 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 48%, Slider 20%, Sinker 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.62
K% Δ+0.025
Sample88.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.3----
Batters Faced309----
K%19.4%16.6% to 25.8%+/- 4.6%
BB%7.4%5.6% to 10.4%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%19.3%16.5% to 23.2%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.380.98 to 2.02+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.3320.292 to 0.364+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.2% to 10.6%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.403.38 to 6.34+/- 1.48
FIP4.333.47 to 5.48+/- 1.01
WHIP1.2831.091 to 1.559+/- 0.234
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

275 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%18.3%
BB%8.0%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

285 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%17.0%
BB%5.6%
Barrel5.6%