Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Ekness, Josh

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
0.1% to 19.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Volatile contact Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
37
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal5 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.03
ERA current pace3.71
ERA rolling p503.28
Observed weight37%
ERA
1.52 2.36 3.28 4.21 5.04
FIP
2.15 3.04 4.02 5.00 5.89
K%
11.1% 14.1% 17.4% 20.8% 23.8%
BB%
7.1% 8.7% 10.4% 12.2% 13.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
39
ERA3.71
61
BB%14.1%
6 -42 vs proj
K%18.3%
24 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.309
55 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
33
Fastball velo98.0
95
Hard-hit allowed31.9%
91
Whiff%18.5%
16 -28 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+104
66
Curveball Stuff+103
60
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Sinker Stuff+102
49
Slider Stuff+101
47
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ekness, Josh · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.309 2026-09-12: 0.3432026-09-13: 0.3432026-09-14: 0.3432026-09-18: 0.3352026-09-19: 0.3272026-09-20: 0.3272026-09-21: 0.3232026-09-22: 0.3232026-09-23: 0.3152026-09-24: 0.3152026-09-25: 0.3152026-09-26: 0.309 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ekness, Josh · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ekness, Josh · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 51.6%Sweeper: 27.2%Sinker: 12.5%Curveball: 8.8% FF52% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 52%ST 27%SI 12%CU 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ekness, Josh · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 52% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 98.0 mphFF98 mphSweeper: 27% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.3 mphST85 mphSinker: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 98.4 mphSI98 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 85.9 mphCU86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.7% 211 104 qualified
SL 26.9% 112 101 limited sample
SI 13.0% 54 102 limited sample
CB 9.4% 39 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 43%, 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Sinker 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.09
K% Δ-0.025
Sample32.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.3----
Batters Faced132----
K%20.8%0.1% to 19.6%+/- 9.8%
BB%9.0%0.3% to 10.0%+/- 4.9%
Whiff%21.6%0.3% to 25.0%+/- 12.3%
HR/91.070.00 to 1.57+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.2840.001 to 0.308+/- 0.154
Barrel% Allowed7.9%1.2% to 10.7%+/- 4.8%
ERA3.620.00 to 4.82+/- 2.41
FIP3.640.71 to 5.83+/- 2.56
WHIP1.2540.246 to 1.414+/- 0.584
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%0.3%
BB%2.8%
Barrel3.1%
vs RHH

4 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%0.3%
BB%2.1%
Barrel3.0%