Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Roupp, Landen

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
17.4% to 26.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
61
Arsenal6 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace4.27
ERA rolling p504.15
Observed weight64%
ERA
3.14 3.62 4.15 4.68 5.15
FIP
2.98 3.31 3.68 4.05 4.38
K%
21.7% 22.8% 24.1% 25.3% 26.5%
BB%
8.1% 8.8% 9.6% 10.4% 11.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
48
ERA4.27
43
BB%10.2%
31
K%25.3%
70 +31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.286
76 +28 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.4%
90 +47 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
30
Hard-hit allowed29.0%
96
Whiff%24.5%
61 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+101
43
Curveball Stuff+104
82
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Sinker Stuff+101
38
Cutter Stuff+102
55
Fastball Stuff+87
2
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Roupp, Landen · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.286 2026-07-06: 0.2892026-07-07: 0.2892026-07-08: 0.2862026-07-09: 0.2862026-07-10: 0.2862026-07-11: 0.2862026-07-12: 0.2862026-07-13: 0.2862026-07-14: 0.2862026-07-15: 0.2862026-07-16: 0.2862026-07-17: 0.286 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Roupp, Landen · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 29%29% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Roupp, Landen · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 36.9%Curveball: 25.9%Changeup: 19.2%Cutter: 14.0%4-Seam Fastball: 4.1% SI37% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 37%CU 26%CH 19%FC 14%FF 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Roupp, Landen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 37% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 76.7 mphCU77 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 87.2 mphCH87 mphCutter: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 89.0 mphFC89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 4% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.9 mphFF93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 36.3% 440 101 qualified
CB 28.1% 340 104 qualified
CH 18.8% 228 101 qualified
FC 13.6% 165 102 limited sample
FB 3.2% 39 87 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.294 vs 0.271 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 40%, Curveball 36%, Changeup 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.07
K% Δ+0.043
Sample100.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.5----
Batters Faced620----
K%21.0%17.4% to 26.5%+/- 4.5%
BB%9.3%7.2% to 12.1%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%22.1%19.8% to 28.2%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.170.53 to 1.72+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3160.272 to 0.339+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.4% to 11.0%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.202.73 to 5.48+/- 1.37
FIP4.072.81 to 4.71+/- 0.95
WHIP1.3691.124 to 1.637+/- 0.256
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

370 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%17.6%
BB%11.1%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

343 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%21.0%
BB%7.2%
Barrel6.6%