Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Patrick, Chad

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.3% K%
Range
21.0% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced starter Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal5 metrics
23
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.51
ERA current pace3.56
ERA rolling p503.96
Observed weight58%
ERA
2.92 3.41 3.96 4.50 4.99
FIP
3.87 4.14 4.44 4.74 5.01
K%
19.5% 20.7% 22.0% 23.2% 24.4%
BB%
7.5% 8.2% 9.0% 9.9% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
51
ERA3.56
61
BB%9.8%
35 -28 vs proj
K%19.9%
32 -17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.315
49
Barrel allowed8.1%
43
Fastball velo95.0
59
Hard-hit allowed39.6%
46
Whiff%22.6%
47 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Cutter Stuff+99
29
Fastball Stuff+100
31
Mithrandir Stuff+99
24
Sinker Stuff+99
27
Slider Stuff+87
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Patrick, Chad · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.315 2026-07-05: 0.3192026-07-06: 0.3192026-07-07: 0.3192026-07-08: 0.3132026-07-09: 0.3132026-07-10: 0.3132026-07-11: 0.3152026-07-12: 0.3152026-07-13: 0.3152026-07-14: 0.3152026-07-15: 0.3152026-07-16: 0.315 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Patrick, Chad · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Patrick, Chad · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 41.6%4-Seam Fastball: 25.3%Sinker: 21.5%Slurve: 10.1%Changeup: 1.6% FC42% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 42%FF 25%SI 22%SV 10%CH 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Patrick, Chad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 42% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 89.5 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mphSinker: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mphSlurve: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 85.5 mphSV86 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.4 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 42.3% 347 99 qualified
FB 24.9% 204 100 qualified
SI 20.5% 168 99 limited sample
SL 11.7% 96 87 limited sample
CH 0.6% 5 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.286 vs 0.260 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 42%, Sinker 23%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.56
K% Δ-0.025
Sample79.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.0----
Batters Faced304----
K%22.3%21.0% to 29.5%+/- 4.3%
BB%7.9%5.9% to 10.7%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%20.6%18.6% to 25.5%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.390.91 to 1.85+/- 0.47
xwOBA Against0.3140.280 to 0.335+/- 0.027
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.2% to 11.9%+/- 3.3%
ERA4.122.68 to 5.57+/- 1.45
FIP3.993.02 to 4.61+/- 0.79
WHIP1.2241.060 to 1.528+/- 0.234
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

254 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%21.5%
BB%8.1%
Barrel9.3%
vs RHH

297 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%23.4%
BB%6.1%
Barrel7.7%