Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Svanson, Matt

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.9% K%
Range
20.2% to 34.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 27 Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.94
ERA current pace8.77
ERA rolling p505.65
Observed weight35%
ERA
3.82 4.69 5.65 6.61 7.48
FIP
3.58 3.90 4.25 4.60 4.92
K%
19.3% 21.6% 24.2% 26.8% 29.1%
BB%
6.7% 8.1% 9.6% 11.2% 12.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.4%
21 -17 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.7%
65 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo96.1
77
Hard-hit allowed50.6%
2
K%20.5%
36 -32 vs proj
Whiff%16.9%
8 -23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.408
1 -46 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+102
54
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Svanson, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.4102026-05-19: 0.4132026-05-21: 0.4132026-05-23: 0.4112026-05-24: 0.4082026-05-25: 0.4082026-05-26: 0.4082026-05-28: 0.4082026-05-29: 0.4082026-05-30: 0.4082026-05-31: 0.4082026-06-01: 0.408 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Svanson, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 51%51% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Svanson, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 47.0%Sweeper: 31.7%Cutter: 21.3% MIX SI 47%ST 32%FC 21% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Svanson, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.2, IVB 1.8SIST: HB -0.1, IVB 2.8STFC: HB 0.1, IVB 2.2FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 47.6% 229 100 qualified
SL 31.2% 150 97 limited sample
FC 21.2% 102 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 47%, Sweeper 35%, Cutter 16%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+5.20
K% Δ-0.045
Sample27.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings35.4----
Batters Faced140----
K%24.9%20.2% to 34.6%+/- 7.2%
BB%9.5%4.9% to 13.2%+/- 4.1%
Whiff%20.8%16.5% to 27.6%+/- 5.6%
HR/90.990.06 to 1.63+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3160.252 to 0.345+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed8.4%3.0% to 14.8%+/- 5.9%
ERA3.570.63 to 5.59+/- 2.48
FIP3.552.11 to 3.94+/- 0.91
WHIP1.1340.751 to 1.581+/- 0.415
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

97 career BF

xwOBA0.253
K%24.9%
BB%8.7%
Barrel9.8%
vs RHH

143 career BF

xwOBA0.243
K%25.3%
BB%6.0%
Barrel9.2%