Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Pfaadt, Brandon

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.5% K%
Range
17.9% to 27.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal7 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.55
ERA current pace4.70
ERA rolling p504.63
Observed weight51%
ERA
3.58 4.07 4.63 5.18 5.67
FIP
3.62 3.89 4.19 4.49 4.76
K%
17.5% 18.9% 20.4% 22.0% 23.4%
BB%
4.9% 5.6% 6.4% 7.1% 7.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.21
68
ERA4.70
32
BB%7.3%
71 -16 vs proj
K%19.0%
27 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.325
39
Barrel allowed9.5%
25
Fastball velo93.3
29
Hard-hit allowed38.0%
56
Whiff%21.0%
33
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Changeup Stuff+104
68
Curveball Stuff+101
26
Cutter Stuff+105
79
Fastball Stuff+107
82
Sinker Stuff+101
42
Slider Stuff+97
20
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 23%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pfaadt, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.325 2026-07-06: 0.3412026-07-07: 0.3412026-07-08: 0.3252026-07-09: 0.3252026-07-10: 0.3252026-07-11: 0.3252026-07-12: 0.3252026-07-13: 0.3252026-07-14: 0.3252026-07-15: 0.3252026-07-16: 0.3252026-07-17: 0.325 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pfaadt, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pfaadt, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 23.3%Sinker: 19.5%Curveball: 18.9%Sweeper: 13.1%Cutter: 12.8%Changeup: 12.1% FF23% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 23%SI 19%CU 19%ST 13%FC 13%CH 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pfaadt, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphSinker: 19% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 19% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 82.1 mphCU82 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.1 mphST84 mphCutter: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 90.3 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.9 mphCH87 mphSlider: 0% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 21.1% 132 101 limited sample
FB 20.3% 127 107 limited sample
CB 19.7% 123 101 limited sample
FC 13.9% 87 105 limited sample
SL 13.9% 87 97 limited sample
CH 11.0% 69 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.325 vs 0.299 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 24%, Sinker 23%, Sweeper 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.03
K% Δ-0.025
Sample58.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings146.8----
Batters Faced636----
K%21.5%17.9% to 27.9%+/- 5.0%
BB%6.0%3.8% to 7.8%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%22.0%19.0% to 26.7%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.510.91 to 1.99+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3300.284 to 0.361+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.6% to 12.7%+/- 3.6%
ERA4.733.61 to 6.57+/- 1.48
FIP4.142.97 to 4.57+/- 0.80
WHIP1.2351.077 to 1.547+/- 0.235
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1080 career BF

xwOBA0.325
K%19.3%
BB%5.5%
Barrel10.5%
vs RHH

1037 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%23.3%
BB%4.6%
Barrel9.0%