Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Sinker 25%, Slider 11%.
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026
Woo, Bryan
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.64 |
| ERA current pace | 3.82 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.74 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
ERA
2.79
3.24
3.74
4.24
4.69
FIP
2.77
3.05
3.36
3.67
3.96
K%
21.2%
22.7%
24.3%
25.9%
27.4%
BB%
3.9%
4.5%
5.2%
5.8%
6.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%4.7%
97
Barrel allowed7.1%
60
+22 vs proj
Fastball velo95.5
71
Hard-hit allowed43.1%
28
K%24.0%
60
Whiff%21.5%
37
-22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.272
82
+21 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+107
87
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
49%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 50.1% | 476 | 107 | qualified |
| SL | 26.3% | 250 | 104 | qualified |
| SI | 18.3% | 174 | 104 | limited sample |
| CH | 5.3% | 50 | 102 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.52 |
| K% Δ | -0.004 |
| Sample | 76.0 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 76.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 307 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.4% | 19.5% to 30.9% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 5.7% | 3.6% to 7.8% | +/- 2.1% |
| Whiff% | 24.1% | 19.7% to 27.8% | +/- 4.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.39 | 0.96 to 2.07 | +/- 0.56 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.302 | 0.263 to 0.319 | +/- 0.028 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.5% | 6.5% to 11.8% | +/- 2.6% |
| ERA | 3.30 | 2.29 to 4.96 | +/- 1.34 |
| FIP | 3.97 | 2.98 to 4.66 | +/- 0.84 |
| WHIP | 1.101 | 0.867 to 1.386 | +/- 0.260 |
vs LHH
834 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.273 |
| K% | 21.8% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 8.5% |
vs RHH
813 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 25.0% |
| BB% | 4.1% |
| Barrel | 8.5% |