Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Woo, Bryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.4% K%
Range
19.5% to 30.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced starter Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
75
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
64
Arsenal6 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.64
ERA current pace3.92
ERA rolling p503.85
Observed weight75%
ERA
2.79 3.29 3.85 4.41 4.91
FIP
2.69 3.01 3.36 3.71 4.02
K%
22.4% 23.4% 24.5% 25.6% 26.6%
BB%
4.5% 4.9% 5.4% 5.9% 6.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.09
87
ERA3.92
54
BB%5.3%
94
K%24.5%
67
xwOBA allowed0.296
72
Barrel allowed7.2%
55 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo96.0
75
Hard-hit allowed42.7%
20
Whiff%22.1%
47
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+107
91
Sinker Stuff+107
85
Slider Stuff+104
66
Changeup Stuff+104
67
Curveball Stuff+98
9
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Woo, Bryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.296 2026-09-12: 0.2922026-09-13: 0.2912026-09-14: 0.2912026-09-18: 0.2912026-09-19: 0.2932026-09-20: 0.2932026-09-21: 0.2932026-09-22: 0.2932026-09-23: 0.2932026-09-24: 0.2932026-09-25: 0.2932026-09-26: 0.296 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Woo, Bryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Woo, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.1%Sinker: 18.9%Slider: 13.5%Sweeper: 11.8%Changeup: 6.4%Curveball: 2.4% FF47% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 47%SI 19%SL 14%ST 12%CH 6%CU 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Woo, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphSinker: 19% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 95.9 mphSI96 mphSlider: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.1 mphSL87 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.4 mphST84 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.6 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.1% 973 107 qualified
SL 25.3% 511 104 qualified
SI 19.1% 386 107 qualified
CH 6.2% 126 104 limited sample
CB 1.2% 25 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Sinker 25%, Slider 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.62
K% Δ+0.000
Sample178.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings77.0----
Batters Faced310----
K%24.4%19.5% to 30.9%+/- 5.7%
BB%5.7%3.6% to 7.8%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%24.1%19.7% to 27.8%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.390.96 to 2.07+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3020.263 to 0.319+/- 0.028
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.5% to 11.8%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.302.29 to 4.96+/- 1.34
FIP3.972.98 to 4.66+/- 0.84
WHIP1.1010.867 to 1.386+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

834 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%21.8%
BB%5.5%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

813 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%25.0%
BB%4.1%
Barrel8.5%