Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Woo, Bryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.4% K%
Range
19.5% to 30.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced starter Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
72
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
61
Arsenal5 metrics
78
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.64
ERA current pace4.23
ERA rolling p504.02
Observed weight65%
ERA
3.04 3.50 4.02 4.54 5.01
FIP
2.72 3.01 3.34 3.66 3.95
K%
21.5% 22.8% 24.1% 25.5% 26.7%
BB%
3.8% 4.4% 4.9% 5.5% 6.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.05
86
ERA4.23
43
BB%4.5%
99
K%23.8%
59
xwOBA allowed0.292
70
Barrel allowed7.3%
57 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
71
Hard-hit allowed43.0%
24
Whiff%21.8%
40 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+108
93
Sinker Stuff+106
83
Slider Stuff+105
78
Changeup Stuff+102
51
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Woo, Bryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.292 2026-07-05: 0.2852026-07-06: 0.2852026-07-07: 0.2852026-07-08: 0.2852026-07-09: 0.2922026-07-10: 0.2922026-07-11: 0.2922026-07-12: 0.2922026-07-13: 0.2922026-07-14: 0.2922026-07-15: 0.2922026-07-16: 0.292 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Woo, Bryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Woo, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.8%Sinker: 17.4%Slider: 15.0%Sweeper: 13.2%Changeup: 6.6% FF48% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 48%SI 17%SL 15%ST 13%CH 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Woo, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphSinker: 17% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 95.5 mphSI96 mphSlider: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.3 mphST84 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.4 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.7% 643 107 qualified
SL 27.4% 362 105 qualified
SI 17.8% 235 106 qualified
CH 6.1% 81 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Sinker 25%, Slider 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.93
K% Δ-0.006
Sample109.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings76.0----
Batters Faced306----
K%24.4%19.5% to 30.9%+/- 5.7%
BB%5.7%3.6% to 7.9%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%24.1%19.7% to 27.8%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.390.96 to 2.07+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3020.263 to 0.319+/- 0.028
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.5% to 11.8%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.302.29 to 4.96+/- 1.34
FIP3.972.98 to 4.66+/- 0.84
WHIP1.1010.867 to 1.386+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

834 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%21.8%
BB%5.5%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

813 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%25.0%
BB%4.1%
Barrel8.5%