Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Pérez, Eury

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
21.2% to 32.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
58
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal6 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace3.99
ERA rolling p504.02
Observed weight74%
ERA
2.60 3.27 4.02 4.77 5.44
FIP
2.95 3.39 3.88 4.37 4.81
K%
23.8% 24.9% 26.0% 27.1% 28.1%
BB%
8.2% 8.8% 9.4% 10.1% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.20
73
ERA3.99
52
BB%10.1%
36 -36 vs proj
K%25.9%
76
xwOBA allowed0.310
53
Barrel allowed9.5%
20 -20 vs proj
Fastball velo98.0
94
Hard-hit allowed39.5%
42
Whiff%26.7%
80
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+110
96
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Sinker Stuff+97
19
Slider Stuff+103
57
Changeup Stuff+100
35
Curveball Stuff+103
54
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pérez, Eury · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.310 2026-09-12: 0.3122026-09-13: 0.3122026-09-14: 0.3122026-09-18: 0.3122026-09-19: 0.3122026-09-20: 0.3122026-09-21: 0.3172026-09-22: 0.3172026-09-23: 0.3152026-09-24: 0.3152026-09-25: 0.3152026-09-26: 0.310 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pérez, Eury · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Eury · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.4%Slider: 17.3%Sinker: 16.8%Sweeper: 13.0%Changeup: 8.9%Curveball: 6.6% FF37% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 37%SL 17%SI 17%ST 13%CH 9%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Eury · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 98.1 mphFF98 mphSlider: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.4 mphSL88 mphSinker: 17% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.6 mphSI98 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 83.6 mphST84 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.9 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.5% 816 110 qualified
SL 31.1% 627 103 qualified
SI 13.2% 266 97 qualified
CH 8.8% 177 100 limited sample
CB 6.4% 130 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 51%, Slider 22%, Curveball 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.10
K% Δ+0.022
Sample165.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.6----
Batters Faced584----
K%23.7%21.2% to 32.7%+/- 5.7%
BB%7.4%5.7% to 10.1%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%26.1%22.4% to 31.8%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.210.92 to 1.96+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.3050.257 to 0.333+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.1%4.6% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.092.96 to 6.57+/- 1.81
FIP3.742.75 to 5.11+/- 1.18
WHIP1.1320.920 to 1.464+/- 0.272
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

410 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%24.3%
BB%7.7%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

367 career BF

xwOBA0.253
K%23.8%
BB%5.8%
Barrel9.1%