Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Pérez, Eury

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
21.2% to 32.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 23 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace4.60
ERA rolling p504.38
Observed weight55%
ERA
3.09 3.70 4.38 5.05 5.66
FIP
3.22 3.62 4.06 4.50 4.90
K%
23.8% 25.3% 26.9% 28.6% 30.1%
BB%
7.4% 8.1% 9.0% 9.8% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.1%
32 -37 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.3%
4 -41 vs proj
Fastball velo98.1
95
Hard-hit allowed42.0%
34
K%27.5%
82 +25 vs proj
Whiff%27.4%
80
xwOBA allowed0.345
22 -36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pérez, Eury · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3472026-05-19: 0.3522026-05-21: 0.3522026-05-23: 0.3532026-05-24: 0.3532026-05-25: 0.3532026-05-26: 0.3532026-05-28: 0.3452026-05-29: 0.3452026-05-30: 0.3452026-05-31: 0.3452026-06-01: 0.345 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pérez, Eury · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Eury · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.4%Slider: 15.0%Sweeper: 14.3%Changeup: 10.8%Curveball: 6.9%Sinker: 5.7% MIX FF 47%SL 15%ST 14%CH 11%CU 7%SI 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Eury · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 0.9FFSL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.6SLST: HB -0.1, IVB 2.4STCH: HB -0.6, IVB 2.1CHCU: HB 0.5, IVB 4.1CUSI: HB 0.4, IVB 1.3SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.5% 505 110 qualified
SL 29.5% 314 102 qualified
CH 10.3% 109 99 limited sample
SI 6.4% 68 86 limited sample
CB 6.3% 67 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 51%, Slider 22%, Curveball 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.51
K% Δ+0.038
Sample71.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.2----
Batters Faced586----
K%23.7%21.2% to 32.7%+/- 5.7%
BB%7.4%5.7% to 10.1%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%26.1%22.4% to 31.8%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.210.92 to 1.96+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.3050.257 to 0.333+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.1%4.6% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.092.95 to 6.57+/- 1.81
FIP3.742.75 to 5.11+/- 1.18
WHIP1.1300.920 to 1.464+/- 0.272
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

410 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%24.3%
BB%7.7%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

367 career BF

xwOBA0.253
K%23.8%
BB%5.8%
Barrel9.1%