Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

McLean, Nolan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.2% K%
Range
24.4% to 35.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Balanced reliever Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.48
ERA current pace4.40
ERA rolling p503.97
Observed weight53%
ERA
2.81 3.36 3.97 4.59 5.14
FIP
2.63 3.10 3.63 4.15 4.63
K%
24.9% 26.5% 28.2% 29.9% 31.4%
BB%
6.7% 7.5% 8.5% 9.4% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.7%
51
Barrel allowed7.2%
59 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo95.3
67
Hard-hit allowed37.1%
64
K%27.9%
83
Whiff%21.7%
39 -23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.291
71 +21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+107
85
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McLean, Nolan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2662026-05-19: 0.2662026-05-21: 0.2742026-05-23: 0.2742026-05-24: 0.2732026-05-25: 0.2732026-05-26: 0.2842026-05-28: 0.2842026-05-29: 0.2842026-05-30: 0.2842026-05-31: 0.2842026-06-01: 0.291 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McLean, Nolan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McLean, Nolan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 35.0%4-Seam Fastball: 17.1%Sweeper: 17.0%Curveball: 12.0%Cutter: 10.5%Changeup: 8.3% MIX SI 35%FF 17%ST 17%CU 12%FC 10%CH 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McLean, Nolan · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.1, IVB 2.1SIFF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.3FFST: HB -0.1, IVB 3.4STCU: HB 0.6, IVB 4.8CUFC: HB 0.0, IVB 2.2FCCH: HB -0.7, IVB 3.2CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 35.0% 387 106 qualified
FB 17.1% 189 105 limited sample
SL 17.0% 188 103 limited sample
CB 12.0% 133 103 limited sample
FC 10.5% 116 106 limited sample
CH 8.3% 92 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 28%, Sweeper 26%, Curveball 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.11
K% Δ+0.027
Sample65.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.1----
Batters Faced270----
K%25.2%24.4% to 35.8%+/- 5.7%
BB%8.8%5.7% to 11.5%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%24.4%21.5% to 30.2%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.300.73 to 1.85+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3130.277 to 0.349+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.3% to 13.2%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.291.73 to 5.02+/- 1.65
FIP3.632.41 to 5.24+/- 1.41
WHIP1.2140.915 to 1.530+/- 0.308
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

104 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%26.7%
BB%8.6%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

84 career BF

xwOBA0.257
K%26.3%
BB%5.9%
Barrel9.9%