Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

McLean, Nolan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.2% K%
Range
24.4% to 35.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Balanced reliever Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
68
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal7 metrics
73
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.48
ERA current pace3.52
ERA rolling p503.51
Observed weight65%
ERA
2.29 2.87 3.51 4.15 4.73
FIP
2.32 2.82 3.37 3.91 4.41
K%
25.4% 26.7% 28.1% 29.5% 30.7%
BB%
7.0% 7.7% 8.5% 9.3% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
76
ERA3.52
62
BB%8.7%
49
K%27.8%
83
xwOBA allowed0.291
71 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.7%
66 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo95.4
66
Hard-hit allowed34.9%
76
Whiff%22.1%
43 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+105
73
Mithrandir Stuff+107
87
Sinker Stuff+107
87
Slider Stuff+102
49
Changeup Stuff+105
70
Curveball Stuff+103
72
Cutter Stuff+105
75
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McLean, Nolan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.291 2026-07-05: 0.2902026-07-06: 0.2902026-07-07: 0.2882026-07-08: 0.2882026-07-09: 0.2882026-07-10: 0.2882026-07-11: 0.2882026-07-12: 0.2912026-07-13: 0.2912026-07-14: 0.2912026-07-15: 0.2912026-07-16: 0.291 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McLean, Nolan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McLean, Nolan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 33.7%4-Seam Fastball: 19.8%Sweeper: 16.4%Curveball: 13.0%Cutter: 10.1%Changeup: 6.5% SI34% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 34%FF 20%ST 16%CU 13%FC 10%CH 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McLean, Nolan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sinker: 34% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.8 mphST85 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 81.9 mphCU82 mphCutter: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.9 mphFC92 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 88.1 mphCH88 mphSlider: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.7 mphSL88 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 64″ drop, 74.8 mphCS75 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 35.2% 458 107 qualified
FB 18.2% 237 105 qualified
SL 16.9% 220 102 qualified
CB 12.5% 162 103 limited sample
FC 10.0% 130 105 limited sample
CH 7.2% 93 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 28%, Sweeper 26%, Curveball 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.23
K% Δ+0.026
Sample105.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.8----
Batters Faced269----
K%25.2%24.4% to 35.8%+/- 5.7%
BB%8.8%5.7% to 11.5%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%24.4%21.5% to 30.2%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.300.73 to 1.85+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3130.277 to 0.349+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.3% to 13.2%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.291.73 to 5.02+/- 1.65
FIP3.632.41 to 5.24+/- 1.41
WHIP1.2140.915 to 1.530+/- 0.308
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

104 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%26.7%
BB%8.6%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

84 career BF

xwOBA0.257
K%26.3%
BB%5.9%
Barrel9.9%