Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Harrison, Kyle

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.8% K%
Range
19.2% to 30.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 25 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
84
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
73
Arsenal5 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.19
ERA current pace3.01
ERA rolling p503.47
Observed weight61%
ERA
2.12 2.76 3.47 4.18 4.82
FIP
2.70 3.09 3.53 3.96 4.36
K%
24.5% 25.9% 27.4% 29.0% 30.3%
BB%
5.2% 5.8% 6.5% 7.2% 7.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
80
ERA3.01
76
BB%5.6%
91 +32 vs proj
K%29.1%
89 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.277
85 +41 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.9%
45 +17 vs proj
Fastball velo95.0
58
Hard-hit allowed38.9%
50
Whiff%27.3%
80 +23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+108
87
Mithrandir Stuff+106
80
Slider Stuff+100
39
Changeup Stuff+100
39
Sinker Stuff+107
87
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Harrison, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.277 2026-07-05: 0.2722026-07-06: 0.2722026-07-07: 0.2722026-07-08: 0.2722026-07-09: 0.2722026-07-10: 0.2772026-07-11: 0.2772026-07-12: 0.2772026-07-13: 0.2772026-07-14: 0.2772026-07-15: 0.2772026-07-16: 0.277 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Harrison, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Harrison, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 57.2%Slurve: 29.9%Changeup: 9.9%Sinker: 2.9% FF57% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 57%SV 30%CH 10%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Harrison, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 57% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mphSlurve: 30% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.2 mphSV82 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mphSinker: 3% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 58.6% 566 108 qualified
SL 29.4% 284 100 qualified
CH 10.6% 102 100 limited sample
SI 1.4% 14 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.296 vs 0.327 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 59%, Slurve 27%, Changeup 8%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.97
K% Δ+0.042
Sample89.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.1----
Batters Faced303----
K%24.8%19.2% to 30.8%+/- 5.8%
BB%8.1%5.9% to 10.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%23.9%20.2% to 29.5%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.330.98 to 2.42+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3180.286 to 0.368+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed9.1%6.6% to 13.7%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.982.59 to 6.33+/- 1.87
FIP3.622.73 to 5.01+/- 1.14
WHIP1.2601.028 to 1.611+/- 0.291
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

217 career BF

xwOBA0.296
K%23.8%
BB%6.5%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

679 career BF

xwOBA0.327
K%22.9%
BB%8.2%
Barrel11.0%