Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Harrison, Kyle

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.8% K%
Range
19.2% to 30.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
60
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal5 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.19
ERA current pace4.25
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight69%
ERA
2.82 3.49 4.23 4.98 5.64
FIP
3.22 3.63 4.08 4.54 4.95
K%
24.0% 25.2% 26.5% 27.8% 29.0%
BB%
6.0% 6.6% 7.3% 7.9% 8.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
39
ERA4.25
45
BB%6.9%
77 +17 vs proj
K%27.2%
82
xwOBA allowed0.309
55
Barrel allowed9.1%
24
Fastball velo94.7
55
Hard-hit allowed40.2%
37
Whiff%25.6%
73
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+106
77
Mithrandir Stuff+103
63
Slider Stuff+100
32
Changeup Stuff+98
24
Sinker Stuff+108
86
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Harrison, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.309 2026-09-12: 0.2992026-09-13: 0.3032026-09-14: 0.3032026-09-18: 0.3072026-09-19: 0.3072026-09-20: 0.3072026-09-21: 0.3092026-09-22: 0.3092026-09-23: 0.3092026-09-24: 0.3092026-09-25: 0.3092026-09-26: 0.309 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Harrison, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Harrison, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 56.4%Slurve: 31.6%Changeup: 9.3%Sinker: 2.7%Cutter: 0.0% FF56% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 56%SV 32%CH 9%SI 3%FC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Harrison, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 56% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.8 mphFF95 mphSlurve: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.0 mphSV82 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mphSinker: 3% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.2 mphSI94 mphCutter: 0% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.7 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 56.2% 797 106 qualified
SL 31.7% 449 100 qualified
CH 10.3% 146 98 limited sample
SI 1.7% 24 108 limited sample
FC 0.1% 1 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.296 vs 0.327 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 59%, Slurve 27%, Changeup 8%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.27
K% Δ+0.024
Sample119.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.0----
Batters Faced307----
K%24.8%19.2% to 30.8%+/- 5.8%
BB%8.1%5.9% to 10.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%23.9%20.2% to 29.5%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.330.98 to 2.42+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3180.286 to 0.368+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed9.1%6.6% to 13.7%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.982.59 to 6.33+/- 1.87
FIP3.622.73 to 5.01+/- 1.14
WHIP1.2621.028 to 1.611+/- 0.291
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

217 career BF

xwOBA0.296
K%23.8%
BB%6.5%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

679 career BF

xwOBA0.327
K%22.9%
BB%8.2%
Barrel11.0%