Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Abel, Mick

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
17.9% to 31.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 25 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace3.98
ERA rolling p503.98
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.61 3.26 3.98 4.70 5.34
FIP
2.63 3.10 3.61 4.13 4.60
K%
19.9% 22.2% 24.7% 27.3% 29.5%
BB%
6.7% 7.8% 9.0% 10.2% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.2%
32 -16 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.8%
90 +48 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
65
Hard-hit allowed35.9%
72
K%25.8%
74 +22 vs proj
Whiff%25.9%
71
xwOBA allowed0.350
19 -27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+106
78
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Abel, Mick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3502026-05-19: 0.3502026-05-21: 0.3502026-05-23: 0.3502026-05-24: 0.3502026-05-25: 0.3502026-05-26: 0.3502026-05-28: 0.3502026-05-29: 0.3502026-05-30: 0.3502026-05-31: 0.3502026-06-01: 0.350 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Abel, Mick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 60%60%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abel, Mick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 42.5%Changeup: 15.9%Slider: 14.2%Curveball: 13.0%Sweeper: 8.5%Sinker: 6.0% MIX FF 42%CH 16%SL 14%CU 13%ST 8%SI 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abel, Mick · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.0, IVB 1.1FFCH: HB -0.7, IVB 2.7CHSL: HB -0.2, IVB 2.7SLCU: HB 0.4, IVB 4.3CUST: HB -1.1, IVB 3.2STSI: HB 0.9, IVB 1.7SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.9% 153 107 limited sample
SL 24.1% 86 101 limited sample
CH 17.6% 63 109 limited sample
CB 12.0% 43 104 limited sample
SI 3.4% 12 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.279 vs 0.258 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Curveball 21%, Sinker 13%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.06
K% Δ+0.033
Sample28.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.0----
Batters Faced282----
K%22.4%17.9% to 31.6%+/- 6.9%
BB%8.9%5.3% to 11.4%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%24.6%18.0% to 29.1%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.390.74 to 2.11+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3180.256 to 0.357+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.0% to 11.1%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.043.09 to 6.79+/- 1.85
FIP4.262.94 to 5.61+/- 1.33
WHIP1.3481.042 to 1.700+/- 0.329
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

101 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%20.6%
BB%8.1%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

80 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%20.6%
BB%6.4%
Barrel6.9%