Abel, Mick
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.97 |
| ERA current pace | 3.98 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.98 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 42.9% | 153 | 107 | limited sample |
| SL | 24.1% | 86 | 101 | limited sample |
| CH | 17.6% | 63 | 109 | limited sample |
| CB | 12.0% | 43 | 104 | limited sample |
| SI | 3.4% | 12 | 98 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.06 |
| K% Δ | +0.033 |
| Sample | 28.7 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 63.0 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 282 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.4% | 17.9% to 31.6% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 5.3% to 11.4% | +/- 3.0% |
| Whiff% | 24.6% | 18.0% to 29.1% | +/- 5.5% |
| HR/9 | 1.39 | 0.74 to 2.11 | +/- 0.68 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.318 | 0.256 to 0.357 | +/- 0.050 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.3% | 5.0% to 11.1% | +/- 3.0% |
| ERA | 4.04 | 3.09 to 6.79 | +/- 1.85 |
| FIP | 4.26 | 2.94 to 5.61 | +/- 1.33 |
| WHIP | 1.348 | 1.042 to 1.700 | +/- 0.329 |
101 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.279 |
| K% | 20.6% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 8.0% |
80 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.258 |
| K% | 20.6% |
| BB% | 6.4% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |