Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Dodd, Dylan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
20.4% K%
Range
13.3% to 27.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
86
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal4 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.31
ERA current pace2.22
ERA rolling p503.36
Observed weight45%
ERA
1.51 2.39 3.36 4.34 5.22
FIP
2.93 3.42 3.97 4.52 5.01
K%
19.2% 21.2% 23.4% 25.6% 27.5%
BB%
4.6% 5.7% 6.9% 8.0% 9.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.91
98
ERA2.22
94
BB%7.5%
69 -16 vs proj
K%27.1%
82 +45 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.273
87 +39 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.7%
30
Fastball velo93.9
41
Hard-hit allowed37.3%
59
Whiff%26.6%
79
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Sinker Stuff+105
76
Cutter Stuff+98
20
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Slider Stuff+86
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 60%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Dodd, Dylan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.273 2026-09-13: 0.2782026-09-14: 0.2782026-09-18: 0.2772026-09-19: 0.2772026-09-20: 0.2772026-09-21: 0.2722026-09-22: 0.2722026-09-23: 0.2722026-09-24: 0.2722026-09-25: 0.2722026-09-26: 0.2672026-09-27: 0.273 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Dodd, Dylan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 11%11%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dodd, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 60.1%Cutter: 34.8%Slider: 5.0%4-Seam Fastball: 0.1% SI60% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 60%FC 35%SL 5%FF 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dodd, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 60% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.9 mphSI94 mphCutter: 35% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.1 mphFC87 mphSlider: 5% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 82.5 mphSL83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 0% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 56.8% 220 105 qualified
FC 37.7% 146 98 limited sample
SL 5.4% 21 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 54%, Sinker 35%, Slider 8%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.93
K% Δ+0.067
Sample50.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.3----
Batters Faced139----
K%20.4%13.3% to 27.0%+/- 6.8%
BB%6.5%3.4% to 10.6%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%24.8%19.2% to 33.0%+/- 6.9%
HR/91.300.49 to 2.56+/- 1.03
xwOBA Against0.3140.263 to 0.376+/- 0.056
Barrel% Allowed8.5%3.8% to 12.7%+/- 4.4%
ERA4.152.31 to 7.53+/- 2.61
FIP4.052.56 to 5.49+/- 1.46
WHIP1.2170.946 to 1.697+/- 0.376
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

113 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%17.0%
BB%5.2%
Barrel8.2%
vs RHH

254 career BF

xwOBA0.300
K%16.3%
BB%4.8%
Barrel8.7%