Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Brieske, Beau

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
17.5% to 30.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
51
Arsenal6 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace5.23
ERA rolling p504.27
Observed weight27%
ERA
3.14 3.68 4.27 4.87 5.41
FIP
3.68 4.00 4.35 4.70 5.02
K%
18.1% 20.5% 23.1% 25.8% 28.1%
BB%
6.3% 7.3% 8.3% 9.4% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.16
78
ERA5.23
22
BB%6.6%
83 +36 vs proj
K%23.1%
58
xwOBA allowed0.300
68
Barrel allowed7.8%
44
Fastball velo95.6
69
Hard-hit allowed46.9%
3
Whiff%20.7%
33 -26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+103
57
Curveball Stuff+97
5
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+108
88
Slider Stuff+112
99
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

8 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Brieske, Beau · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.300 2026-09-19: 0.3012026-09-20: 0.3012026-09-21: 0.3012026-09-22: 0.2922026-09-23: 0.2992026-09-24: 0.2992026-09-25: 0.2992026-09-26: 0.300 2026-09-19 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Brieske, Beau · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brieske, Beau · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 42.3%Slider: 19.0%Sinker: 15.4%Changeup: 13.2%Curveball: 10.1% FF42% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 42%SL 19%SI 15%CH 13%CU 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brieske, Beau · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.5 mphFF96 mphSlider: 19% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 89.6 mphSL90 mphSinker: 15% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.8 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.6 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 85.9 mphCU86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.4% 78 100 limited sample
CH 16.6% 32 103 limited sample
SL 15.5% 30 112 limited sample
SI 15.5% 30 108 limited sample
CB 11.9% 23 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 48%, Changeup 25%, Sinker 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.14
K% Δ+0.003
Sample22.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.6----
Batters Faced280----
K%22.8%17.5% to 30.6%+/- 6.6%
BB%9.2%6.8% to 11.7%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%23.7%19.1% to 28.5%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.220.73 to 1.87+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.3040.260 to 0.324+/- 0.032
Barrel% Allowed6.9%3.9% to 9.4%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.092.84 to 5.77+/- 1.47
FIP3.973.01 to 4.74+/- 0.86
WHIP1.3361.071 to 1.559+/- 0.244
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

452 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%20.0%
BB%10.3%
Barrel5.3%
vs RHH

510 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%21.3%
BB%7.5%
Barrel5.8%