Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Agnos, Zach

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.7% K%
Range
9.4% to 26.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
21
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal5 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.16
ERA current pace6.00
ERA rolling p505.34
Observed weight64%
ERA
3.56 4.40 5.34 6.27 7.12
FIP
3.52 4.06 4.66 5.27 5.81
K%
12.0% 13.6% 15.3% 17.1% 18.6%
BB%
6.9% 7.8% 8.7% 9.7% 10.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.54
18
ERA6.00
11
BB%8.2%
59
K%14.1%
4
xwOBA allowed0.349
15
Barrel allowed9.0%
26
Fastball velo94.1
45
Hard-hit allowed42.0%
25
Whiff%20.2%
29 -44 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+104
80
Fastball Stuff+102
48
Mithrandir Stuff+103
54
Slider Stuff+98
23
Sinker Stuff+106
78
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 24%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Agnos, Zach · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.349 2026-09-12: 0.3542026-09-13: 0.3542026-09-14: 0.3522026-09-18: 0.3492026-09-19: 0.3492026-09-20: 0.3492026-09-21: 0.3492026-09-22: 0.3492026-09-23: 0.3492026-09-24: 0.3492026-09-25: 0.3492026-09-26: 0.349 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Agnos, Zach · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Agnos, Zach · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 24.2%Cutter: 21.9%Sweeper: 16.9%Sinker: 14.0%Slider: 12.2%Split-Finger: 11.0% FF24% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 24%FC 22%ST 17%SI 14%SL 12%FS 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Agnos, Zach · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphCutter: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 91.8 mphFC92 mphSweeper: 17% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.0 mphST84 mphSinker: 14% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mphSlider: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mphSplit-Finger: 11% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.1 mphFS86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 34.5% 314 98 qualified
FB 26.0% 237 102 qualified
FC 23.7% 216 104 qualified
SI 15.7% 143 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 33%, 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Split-Finger 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.62
K% Δ-0.036
Sample94.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.5----
Batters Faced139----
K%17.7%9.4% to 26.3%+/- 8.4%
BB%9.4%6.0% to 13.9%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%25.7%20.1% to 31.8%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.410.36 to 2.26+/- 0.95
xwOBA Against0.3380.271 to 0.420+/- 0.075
Barrel% Allowed8.9%4.1% to 15.6%+/- 5.8%
ERA4.383.11 to 7.96+/- 2.42
FIP4.603.12 to 6.24+/- 1.56
WHIP1.3501.014 to 1.766+/- 0.376
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

73 career BF

xwOBA0.310
K%12.2%
BB%10.1%
Barrel11.7%
vs RHH

77 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%13.2%
BB%7.9%
Barrel10.5%