Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Agnos, Zach

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.7% K%
Range
9.4% to 26.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
17
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
25
Arsenal5 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.16
ERA current pace6.48
ERA rolling p505.41
Observed weight54%
ERA
3.69 4.51 5.41 6.32 7.13
FIP
3.81 4.33 4.91 5.49 6.02
K%
11.6% 13.5% 15.7% 17.9% 19.8%
BB%
6.9% 7.9% 9.0% 10.1% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.59
10
ERA6.48
6
BB%8.5%
52
K%14.2%
5
xwOBA allowed0.358
11
Barrel allowed8.8%
34
Fastball velo94.3
47
Hard-hit allowed42.3%
28
Whiff%20.3%
27 -44 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Cutter Stuff+105
74
Fastball Stuff+101
36
Sinker Stuff+105
77
Slider Stuff+97
22
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Agnos, Zach · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.358 2026-07-06: 0.3652026-07-07: 0.3652026-07-08: 0.3582026-07-09: 0.3582026-07-10: 0.3582026-07-11: 0.3582026-07-12: 0.3582026-07-13: 0.3582026-07-14: 0.3582026-07-15: 0.3582026-07-16: 0.3582026-07-17: 0.358 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Agnos, Zach · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Agnos, Zach · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 24.8%Cutter: 24.4%Sweeper: 15.0%Sinker: 12.6%Slider: 12.5%Split-Finger: 10.7% FF25% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 25%FC 24%ST 15%SI 13%SL 13%FS 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Agnos, Zach · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.5 mphFF95 mphCutter: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 91.9 mphFC92 mphSweeper: 15% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.0 mphST84 mphSinker: 13% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mphSlider: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.7 mphSL85 mphSplit-Finger: 11% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.2 mphFS86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 32.3% 182 97 limited sample
FC 27.9% 157 105 limited sample
FB 26.5% 149 101 limited sample
SI 13.3% 75 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 33%, 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Split-Finger 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.10
K% Δ-0.035
Sample61.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.1----
Batters Faced142----
K%17.7%9.4% to 26.3%+/- 8.4%
BB%9.4%6.0% to 13.9%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%25.7%20.1% to 31.8%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.410.36 to 2.26+/- 0.95
xwOBA Against0.3380.271 to 0.420+/- 0.075
Barrel% Allowed8.9%4.1% to 15.6%+/- 5.8%
ERA4.383.11 to 7.95+/- 2.42
FIP4.603.12 to 6.24+/- 1.56
WHIP1.3501.014 to 1.766+/- 0.376
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

73 career BF

xwOBA0.310
K%12.2%
BB%10.1%
Barrel11.7%
vs RHH

77 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%13.2%
BB%7.9%
Barrel10.5%