Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

King, Bryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.1% K%
Range
19.2% to 31.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
51
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal4 metrics
29
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.78
ERA current pace2.93
ERA rolling p503.40
Observed weight45%
ERA
2.04 2.68 3.40 4.12 4.76
FIP
3.18 3.51 3.88 4.24 4.58
K%
17.0% 18.8% 20.8% 22.8% 24.6%
BB%
5.4% 6.5% 7.8% 9.0% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.27
59
ERA2.93
78
BB%8.8%
47 -36 vs proj
K%18.1%
20 -42 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.311
53
Barrel allowed4.4%
90 +30 vs proj
Fastball velo91.8
13
Hard-hit allowed36.3%
66
Whiff%15.8%
4 -33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+98
22
Mithrandir Stuff+99
27
Sinker Stuff+100
33
Slider Stuff+100
36
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 60%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed King, Bryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.311 2026-07-06: 0.2902026-07-07: 0.2892026-07-08: 0.2892026-07-09: 0.2922026-07-10: 0.2922026-07-11: 0.2922026-07-12: 0.3082026-07-13: 0.3082026-07-14: 0.3112026-07-15: 0.3112026-07-16: 0.3112026-07-17: 0.311 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile King, Bryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal King, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 60.3%Sweeper: 28.0%Sinker: 10.5%Changeup: 1.1% FF60% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 60%ST 28%SI 11%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal King, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 60% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 91.8 mphFF92 mphSweeper: 28% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 80.7 mphST81 mphSinker: 11% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.3 mphSI91 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 59.5% 278 98 qualified
SL 28.9% 135 100 limited sample
SI 10.5% 49 100 limited sample
CH 1.1% 5 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.247 vs 0.267 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 63%, Sweeper 30%, Sinker 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.71
K% Δ-0.060
Sample45.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.5----
Batters Faced154----
K%24.1%19.2% to 31.7%+/- 6.3%
BB%6.4%3.3% to 10.9%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%21.3%17.6% to 27.5%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.170.65 to 2.04+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3000.271 to 0.346+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed7.1%2.9% to 10.0%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.641.83 to 5.65+/- 1.91
FIP3.623.10 to 5.07+/- 0.98
WHIP1.2370.996 to 1.617+/- 0.310
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

135 career BF

xwOBA0.247
K%23.8%
BB%5.0%
Barrel4.0%
vs RHH

276 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%22.4%
BB%4.7%
Barrel5.4%