Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

King, Bryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.1% K%
Range
19.2% to 31.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.78
ERA current pace3.04
ERA rolling p503.53
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.11 2.78 3.53 4.28 4.96
FIP
2.93 3.28 3.67 4.06 4.40
K%
16.8% 18.9% 21.2% 23.5% 25.6%
BB%
4.9% 6.2% 7.7% 9.1% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.2%
41 -41 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.4%
97 +36 vs proj
Fastball velo91.7
14
Hard-hit allowed40.2%
44
K%17.6%
17 -44 vs proj
Whiff%16.6%
8 -27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.295
67
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+98
23
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 59%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed King, Bryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2862026-05-19: 0.2862026-05-21: 0.2882026-05-23: 0.2862026-05-24: 0.2902026-05-25: 0.2902026-05-26: 0.2902026-05-28: 0.2982026-05-29: 0.2982026-05-30: 0.2982026-05-31: 0.2952026-06-01: 0.295 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile King, Bryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal King, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 59.3%Sweeper: 28.5%Sinker: 11.2%Changeup: 1.1% MIX FF 59%ST 28%SI 11%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal King, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.6FFST: HB 0.2, IVB 3.4STSI: HB 0.9, IVB 2.3SICH: HB -0.6, IVB 2.5CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 59.5% 248 98 qualified
SL 29.3% 122 99 limited sample
SI 10.3% 43 100 limited sample
CH 1.0% 4 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.247 vs 0.267 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 63%, Sweeper 30%, Sinker 5%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.60
K% Δ-0.065
Sample27.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.0----
Batters Faced156----
K%24.1%19.2% to 31.7%+/- 6.3%
BB%6.4%3.3% to 10.9%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%21.3%17.6% to 27.5%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.170.65 to 2.04+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3000.271 to 0.346+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed7.1%2.9% to 10.0%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.641.83 to 5.65+/- 1.91
FIP3.623.10 to 5.07+/- 0.98
WHIP1.2370.996 to 1.617+/- 0.310
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

135 career BF

xwOBA0.247
K%23.8%
BB%5.0%
Barrel4.0%
vs RHH

276 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%22.4%
BB%4.7%
Barrel5.4%