Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

King, Bryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.1% K%
Range
19.2% to 31.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
39
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal4 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.78
ERA current pace4.78
ERA rolling p504.32
Observed weight54%
ERA
2.96 3.61 4.32 5.03 5.67
FIP
3.53 3.86 4.22 4.59 4.92
K%
17.1% 18.6% 20.4% 22.1% 23.7%
BB%
5.5% 6.5% 7.6% 8.7% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
28
ERA4.78
32
BB%8.2%
59 -27 vs proj
K%18.1%
22 -44 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.308
56
Barrel allowed5.1%
85 +29 vs proj
Fastball velo91.9
15
Hard-hit allowed36.4%
66
Whiff%16.5%
6 -33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+99
27
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Sinker Stuff+100
35
Slider Stuff+100
36
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 55%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed King, Bryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.308 2026-09-12: 0.3142026-09-13: 0.3162026-09-14: 0.3162026-09-18: 0.3122026-09-19: 0.3122026-09-20: 0.3122026-09-21: 0.3132026-09-22: 0.3132026-09-23: 0.3132026-09-24: 0.3132026-09-25: 0.3132026-09-26: 0.308 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile King, Bryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal King, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 55.5%Sweeper: 26.8%Sinker: 16.7%Changeup: 0.9%Curveball: 0.1% FF55% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 55%ST 27%SI 17%CH 1%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal King, Bryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 55% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 92.0 mphFF92 mphSweeper: 27% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 81.3 mphST81 mphSinker: 17% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.6 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.4 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 79.3 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 55.0% 343 99 qualified
SL 26.9% 168 100 limited sample
SI 17.0% 106 100 limited sample
CH 1.1% 7 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.247 vs 0.267 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 63%, Sweeper 30%, Sinker 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.14
K% Δ-0.060
Sample61.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings36.9----
Batters Faced152----
K%24.1%19.2% to 31.7%+/- 6.3%
BB%6.4%3.3% to 10.9%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%21.3%17.6% to 27.5%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.170.65 to 2.04+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3000.271 to 0.346+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed7.1%2.9% to 10.0%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.641.83 to 5.65+/- 1.91
FIP3.623.10 to 5.07+/- 0.98
WHIP1.2370.996 to 1.617+/- 0.310
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

135 career BF

xwOBA0.247
K%23.8%
BB%5.0%
Barrel4.0%
vs RHH

276 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%22.4%
BB%4.7%
Barrel5.4%