Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans on stable run prevention more than one extreme carrying pitch trait.
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026
Herz, Dj
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team WSH
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
33
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.12 |
| ERA current pace | 9.00 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.48 |
| Observed weight | 7% |
ERA
3.23
3.82
4.48
5.13
5.73
FIP
2.60
3.14
3.75
4.35
4.89
K%
18.7%
20.8%
23.3%
25.7%
27.8%
BB%
5.7%
6.8%
8.0%
9.2%
10.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Changeup Stuff+103
63
Fastball Stuff+98
23
Mithrandir Stuff+98
20
Slider Stuff+99
27
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
48%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 47.6% | 30 | 98 | limited sample |
| CH | 31.7% | 20 | 103 | limited sample |
| SL | 17.5% | 11 | 99 | limited sample |
| CB | 3.2% | 2 | 92 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 141.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 616 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.1% | 19.6% to 29.2% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 5.7% to 10.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| Whiff% | 24.5% | 20.3% to 28.0% | +/- 3.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.48 | 0.84 to 1.95 | +/- 0.55 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.319 | 0.242 to 0.331 | +/- 0.044 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.6% | 5.0% to 11.0% | +/- 3.0% |
| ERA | 4.36 | 2.82 to 5.50 | +/- 1.34 |
| FIP | 3.91 | 2.64 to 5.12 | +/- 1.24 |
| WHIP | 1.351 | 0.942 to 1.580 | +/- 0.319 |
vs LHH
92 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.211 |
| K% | 21.6% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |
vs RHH
290 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.225 |
| K% | 21.0% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |