Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Kempner, William

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
18.2% K%
Range
0.2% to 20.1%
Live Δ
--
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 25 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
57
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal4 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+104
65
Mithrandir Stuff+105
78
Sinker Stuff+95
13
Slider Stuff+105
74
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kempner, William · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 23%23% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kempner, William · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.2%Sweeper: 22.1%Sinker: 14.6%Cutter: 12.6%Changeup: 2.5% FF48% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 48%ST 22%SI 15%FC 13%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kempner, William · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.5 mphFF95 mphSweeper: 22% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 81.6 mphST82 mphSinker: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mphCutter: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.3 mphFC87 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 86.8 mphCH87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.6% 39 104 limited sample
SL 26.8% 22 105 limited sample
SI 12.2% 10 95 limited sample
FC 9.8% 8 116 limited sample
CH 3.7% 3 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.8----
Batters Faced136----
K%18.2%0.2% to 20.1%+/- 9.9%
BB%8.1%0.1% to 8.7%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%19.6%0.8% to 25.2%+/- 12.2%
HR/91.190.00 to 1.41+/- 0.71
xwOBA Against0.2840.013 to 0.326+/- 0.157
Barrel% Allowed7.3%0.1% to 9.2%+/- 4.5%
ERA4.800.00 to 5.84+/- 2.92
FIP3.840.50 to 6.35+/- 2.92
WHIP1.3810.235 to 1.514+/- 0.639
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%0.3%
BB%0.2%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

3 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%0.3%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%