Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Gusto, Ryan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.5% K%
Range
16.6% to 27.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal7 metrics
79
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.69
ERA current pace4.09
ERA rolling p504.32
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.99 3.62 4.32 5.02 5.65
FIP
3.41 3.76 4.14 4.52 4.86
K%
17.5% 18.7% 20.1% 21.5% 22.7%
BB%
5.9% 6.6% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
26
ERA4.09
49
BB%7.1%
76 +16 vs proj
K%18.8%
28 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.341
22
Barrel allowed8.8%
30
Fastball velo94.2
47
Hard-hit allowed43.2%
18
Whiff%17.9%
12 -29 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+108
87
Mithrandir Stuff+106
86
Changeup Stuff+103
57
Curveball Stuff+104
74
Cutter Stuff+105
85
Sinker Stuff+106
79
Slider Stuff+106
81
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gusto, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.341 2026-09-13: 0.3362026-09-14: 0.3362026-09-18: 0.3392026-09-19: 0.3392026-09-20: 0.3392026-09-21: 0.3392026-09-22: 0.3392026-09-23: 0.3392026-09-24: 0.3412026-09-25: 0.3412026-09-26: 0.3412026-09-27: 0.341 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gusto, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gusto, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.6%Changeup: 13.2%Sweeper: 13.2%Sinker: 12.2%Cutter: 12.0%Slider: 11.7% FF29% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 29%CH 13%ST 13%SI 12%FC 12%SL 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gusto, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.7 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.2 mphCH87 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 81.6 mphST82 mphSinker: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mphCutter: 12% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.3 mphFC89 mphSlider: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.4 mphSL85 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 62″ drop, 78.4 mphCU78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 29.1% 227 108 qualified
SL 25.5% 199 106 limited sample
CH 12.9% 101 103 limited sample
SI 11.5% 90 106 limited sample
FC 11.1% 87 105 limited sample
CB 9.9% 77 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.297 vs 0.257 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Curveball 15%, Cutter 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.57
K% Δ-0.027
Sample86.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.8----
Batters Faced308----
K%21.5%16.6% to 27.6%+/- 5.5%
BB%8.1%5.5% to 10.8%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%21.5%18.7% to 27.4%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.330.84 to 2.15+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3330.268 to 0.360+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.8%4.2% to 11.9%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.663.18 to 6.83+/- 1.83
FIP4.342.99 to 4.98+/- 0.99
WHIP1.3191.077 to 1.681+/- 0.302
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

244 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%18.7%
BB%8.3%
Barrel10.1%
vs RHH

223 career BF

xwOBA0.257
K%19.1%
BB%6.0%
Barrel6.9%