Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Headrick, Brent

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.9% K%
Range
22.5% to 32.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace2.02
ERA rolling p503.28
Observed weight35%
ERA
1.82 2.51 3.28 4.06 4.75
FIP
2.51 3.05 3.65 4.25 4.79
K%
22.8% 24.6% 26.6% 28.6% 30.4%
BB%
5.7% 6.8% 8.0% 9.2% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.6%
52
Barrel allowed6.0%
73 +42 vs proj
Fastball velo93.8
40
Hard-hit allowed41.7%
36
K%25.0%
69
Whiff%28.5%
84
xwOBA allowed0.299
64 +19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+104
64
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Headrick, Brent · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3002026-05-19: 0.3002026-05-21: 0.2942026-05-23: 0.2982026-05-24: 0.2982026-05-25: 0.2982026-05-26: 0.2912026-05-28: 0.2912026-05-29: 0.2902026-05-30: 0.2902026-05-31: 0.2992026-06-01: 0.299 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Headrick, Brent · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Headrick, Brent · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.2%Slider: 33.8%Sinker: 11.9%Split-Finger: 4.2% MIX FF 50%SL 34%SI 12%FS 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Headrick, Brent · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.1FFSL: HB 0.0, IVB 2.9SLSI: HB 1.0, IVB 1.5SIFS: HB -0.8, IVB 2.5FS horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.9% 201 107 qualified
SL 35.7% 141 95 limited sample
SI 13.4% 53 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 66%, Slider 22%, Split-Finger 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.58
K% Δ-0.019
Sample30.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings58.2----
Batters Faced246----
K%26.9%22.5% to 32.9%+/- 5.2%
BB%9.1%5.9% to 12.0%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%26.4%21.7% to 31.5%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.520.74 to 2.46+/- 0.86
xwOBA Against0.3180.246 to 0.338+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed9.2%5.7% to 12.8%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.601.78 to 5.75+/- 1.98
FIP3.742.53 to 5.61+/- 1.54
WHIP1.1930.933 to 1.546+/- 0.306
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

98 career BF

xwOBA0.246
K%25.2%
BB%6.8%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

141 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%25.4%
BB%7.9%
Barrel9.7%