Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Headrick, Brent

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.9% K%
Range
22.5% to 32.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
77
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
73
Arsenal4 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace1.55
ERA rolling p502.86
Observed weight46%
ERA
1.45 2.11 2.86 3.60 4.26
FIP
2.23 2.75 3.33 3.90 4.42
K%
24.2% 25.7% 27.5% 29.3% 30.9%
BB%
6.2% 7.1% 8.2% 9.3% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.20
70
ERA1.55
99
BB%8.9%
46
K%27.6%
81
xwOBA allowed0.271
89 +45 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.5%
81 +53 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
44
Hard-hit allowed37.5%
60
Whiff%29.9%
91 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+106
80
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Sinker Stuff+106
81
Slider Stuff+97
21
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Headrick, Brent · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.271 2026-07-05: 0.2832026-07-06: 0.2782026-07-07: 0.2782026-07-08: 0.2782026-07-09: 0.2732026-07-10: 0.2732026-07-11: 0.2712026-07-12: 0.2712026-07-13: 0.2712026-07-14: 0.2712026-07-15: 0.2712026-07-16: 0.271 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Headrick, Brent · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Headrick, Brent · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.2%Slider: 34.6%Sinker: 10.6%Split-Finger: 5.7% FF49% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 49%SL 35%SI 11%FS 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Headrick, Brent · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphSlider: 35% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.0 mphSL84 mphSinker: 11% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphSplit-Finger: 6% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.1 mphFS85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 51.5% 222 106 qualified
SL 36.0% 155 97 limited sample
SI 12.5% 54 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 66%, Slider 22%, Split-Finger 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.05
K% Δ+0.007
Sample49.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings57.9----
Batters Faced244----
K%26.9%22.5% to 32.9%+/- 5.2%
BB%9.1%5.9% to 12.0%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%26.4%21.7% to 31.5%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.520.74 to 2.46+/- 0.86
xwOBA Against0.3180.246 to 0.338+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed9.2%5.7% to 12.8%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.601.78 to 5.75+/- 1.98
FIP3.742.53 to 5.61+/- 1.54
WHIP1.1930.933 to 1.546+/- 0.306
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

98 career BF

xwOBA0.246
K%25.2%
BB%6.8%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

141 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%25.4%
BB%7.9%
Barrel9.7%