Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Hughes, Gabriel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
4.9% to 25.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 25 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
37
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason2.65
ERA current pace6.33
ERA rolling p504.64
Observed weight54%
ERA
3.13 3.85 4.64 5.43 6.15
FIP
1.57 2.48 3.50 4.51 5.43
K%
14.8% 17.2% 19.7% 22.3% 24.7%
BB%
5.2% 6.1% 7.2% 8.3% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
27
ERA6.33
8
BB%8.5%
55
K%19.8%
34
xwOBA allowed0.305
60 -22 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
73 +41 vs proj
Fastball velo92.5
21
Hard-hit allowed32.2%
90
Whiff%18.1%
13 -33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+102
47
Mithrandir Stuff+101
35
Changeup Stuff+98
25
Curveball Stuff+100
21
Sinker Stuff+102
50
Slider Stuff+100
37
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hughes, Gabriel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.305 2026-09-12: 0.2922026-09-13: 0.2922026-09-14: 0.3002026-09-18: 0.3002026-09-19: 0.3052026-09-20: 0.3052026-09-21: 0.3052026-09-22: 0.3052026-09-23: 0.3052026-09-24: 0.3052026-09-25: 0.3052026-09-26: 0.305 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hughes, Gabriel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hughes, Gabriel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.7%Curveball: 12.1%Changeup: 11.1%Sinker: 10.4%Sweeper: 8.7%Slider: 8.0% FF50% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 50%CU 12%CH 11%SI 10%ST 9%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hughes, Gabriel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 50% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.4 mphFF92 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 78.7 mphCU79 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.8 mphCH88 mphSinker: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.9 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.5 mphST86 mphSlider: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.5 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.1% 285 102 qualified
SL 15.1% 100 100 limited sample
CB 15.1% 100 100 limited sample
SI 13.9% 92 102 limited sample
CH 12.7% 84 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.20
K% Δ-0.010
Sample63.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.4----
Batters Faced284----
K%20.7%4.9% to 25.1%+/- 10.1%
BB%8.1%0.8% to 8.2%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%22.1%5.3% to 28.1%+/- 11.4%
HR/91.500.05 to 1.41+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.2840.007 to 0.303+/- 0.148
Barrel% Allowed8.6%1.0% to 10.1%+/- 4.6%
ERA4.130.24 to 4.50+/- 2.13
FIP4.040.32 to 5.76+/- 2.72
WHIP1.1700.091 to 1.271+/- 0.590
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

4 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%6.0%
BB%0.1%
Barrel2.5%
vs RHH

5 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%6.3%
BB%0.1%
Barrel2.4%