Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Mathews, Quinn

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.6% K%
Range
10.9% to 26.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
50
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal6 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason2.57
ERA current pace3.62
ERA rolling p503.06
Observed weight47%
ERA
1.35 2.16 3.06 3.96 4.77
FIP
2.46 3.06 3.73 4.39 4.99
K%
16.8% 18.9% 21.3% 23.7% 25.9%
BB%
6.3% 7.8% 9.5% 11.1% 12.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
41
ERA3.62
66
BB%10.0%
37
K%20.6%
39
xwOBA allowed0.299
69
Barrel allowed3.5%
96 +49 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
31
Hard-hit allowed34.5%
79
Whiff%24.2%
61
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+99
27
Curveball Stuff+103
66
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+101
35
Sinker Stuff+104
62
Slider Stuff+100
34
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mathews, Quinn · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.299 2026-09-12: 0.2912026-09-13: 0.2912026-09-14: 0.2912026-09-18: 0.2882026-09-19: 0.2882026-09-20: 0.2882026-09-21: 0.2992026-09-22: 0.2992026-09-23: 0.2992026-09-24: 0.2992026-09-25: 0.2992026-09-26: 0.299 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mathews, Quinn · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mathews, Quinn · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.5%Slider: 22.8%Changeup: 16.9%Curveball: 12.7%Sinker: 9.0% FF39% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 39%SL 23%CH 17%CU 13%SI 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mathews, Quinn · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.8 mphSL85 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 83.0 mphCH83 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 75.7 mphCU76 mphSinker: 9% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 92.9 mphSI93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.5% 188 101 limited sample
SL 22.5% 110 100 limited sample
CH 16.8% 82 99 limited sample
CB 14.1% 69 103 limited sample
SI 8.0% 39 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 60%, Slider 19%, Changeup 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.34
K% Δ+0.010
Sample47.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.6----
Batters Faced131----
K%19.6%10.9% to 26.8%+/- 7.9%
BB%9.7%2.7% to 13.5%+/- 5.4%
Whiff%25.2%15.6% to 33.2%+/- 8.8%
HR/91.220.00 to 1.65+/- 0.83
xwOBA Against0.2830.017 to 0.301+/- 0.142
Barrel% Allowed7.6%0.1% to 8.8%+/- 4.3%
ERA3.960.00 to 4.82+/- 2.41
FIP3.751.04 to 4.61+/- 1.79
WHIP1.3500.454 to 1.634+/- 0.590
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

4 career BF

xwOBA0.003
K%13.2%
BB%4.1%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

13 career BF

xwOBA0.003
K%12.0%
BB%4.3%
Barrel0.1%