Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Sproat, Brandon

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.6% K%
Range
14.2% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 26 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
29
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal7 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.53
ERA current pace5.57
ERA rolling p505.21
Observed weight65%
ERA
3.93 4.53 5.21 5.88 6.48
FIP
3.54 4.10 4.74 5.37 5.93
K%
19.5% 20.9% 22.5% 24.1% 25.5%
BB%
8.8% 9.7% 10.6% 11.6% 12.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
24
ERA5.57
16
BB%12.2%
17 -39 vs proj
K%24.0%
66 +20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.341
21 -15 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.3%
36 -28 vs proj
Fastball velo96.5
81
Hard-hit allowed42.0%
24
Whiff%22.9%
52 +33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+103
64
Fastball Stuff+99
26
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Sinker Stuff+99
29
Changeup Stuff+98
22
Curveball Stuff+100
18
Slider Stuff+100
32
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sproat, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.341 2026-09-12: 0.3412026-09-13: 0.3412026-09-14: 0.3412026-09-18: 0.3412026-09-19: 0.3412026-09-20: 0.3412026-09-21: 0.3412026-09-22: 0.3412026-09-23: 0.3412026-09-24: 0.3412026-09-25: 0.3412026-09-26: 0.341 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sproat, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sproat, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 26.3%4-Seam Fastball: 24.1%Cutter: 20.9%Sweeper: 10.3%Curveball: 10.1%Changeup: 8.2% SI26% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 26%FF 24%FC 21%ST 10%CU 10%CH 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sproat, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 26% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 96.2 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphCutter: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.0 mphFC93 mphSweeper: 10% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.2 mphST86 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 91.4 mphCH91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 24.3% 250 99 qualified
FC 23.2% 239 103 qualified
FB 22.8% 235 99 qualified
CB 12.1% 125 100 limited sample
SL 9.5% 98 100 limited sample
CH 8.1% 83 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 35%, Sweeper 19%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.48
K% Δ+0.024
Sample97.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.9----
Batters Faced268----
K%21.6%14.2% to 28.3%+/- 7.0%
BB%8.4%5.1% to 12.0%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%19.0%10.8% to 23.1%+/- 6.1%
HR/91.060.05 to 1.67+/- 0.81
xwOBA Against0.3230.251 to 0.354+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed6.6%2.2% to 8.7%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.092.92 to 6.38+/- 1.73
FIP3.792.08 to 5.33+/- 1.63
WHIP1.3510.891 to 1.618+/- 0.364
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

42 career BF

xwOBA0.231
K%14.8%
BB%6.2%
Barrel2.9%
vs RHH

42 career BF

xwOBA0.220
K%15.6%
BB%5.5%
Barrel2.9%