Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Barnett, Mason

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.1% K%
Range
13.0% to 27.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
17
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal5 metrics
33
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.44
ERA current pace7.16
ERA rolling p505.77
Observed weight49%
ERA
4.54 5.12 5.77 6.42 7.01
FIP
4.67 5.05 5.47 5.89 6.27
K%
16.6% 18.5% 20.6% 22.7% 24.5%
BB%
8.8% 9.8% 10.8% 11.9% 12.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.68
8
ERA7.16
3
BB%13.0%
10 -36 vs proj
K%21.7%
46
xwOBA allowed0.343
19 -20 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.8%
28
Fastball velo94.9
57
Hard-hit allowed40.1%
37
Whiff%20.1%
27 -19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+94
11
Curveball Stuff+103
54
Fastball Stuff+93
7
Mithrandir Stuff+97
15
Slider Stuff+105
78
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Barnett, Mason · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.343 2026-09-12: 0.3502026-09-13: 0.3502026-09-14: 0.3502026-09-18: 0.3502026-09-19: 0.3522026-09-20: 0.3522026-09-21: 0.3522026-09-22: 0.3522026-09-23: 0.3522026-09-24: 0.3522026-09-25: 0.3522026-09-26: 0.343 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Barnett, Mason · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Barnett, Mason · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.2%Slider: 17.8%Sweeper: 15.2%Curveball: 10.2%Changeup: 7.6% FF49% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 49%SL 18%ST 15%CU 10%CH 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Barnett, Mason · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.9 mphFF95 mphSlider: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 87.3 mphSL87 mphSweeper: 15% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 83.6 mphST84 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 79.0 mphCU79 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.3 mphCH85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.0% 195 93 limited sample
SL 30.4% 121 105 limited sample
CB 11.1% 44 103 limited sample
CH 9.5% 38 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Sweeper 21%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.23
K% Δ-0.003
Sample49.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.1----
Batters Faced294----
K%22.1%13.0% to 27.0%+/- 7.0%
BB%9.2%5.9% to 11.6%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%22.1%15.6% to 26.2%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.500.49 to 1.87+/- 0.69
xwOBA Against0.3210.240 to 0.346+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.1% to 12.4%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.933.36 to 6.86+/- 1.75
FIP4.312.96 to 5.21+/- 1.13
WHIP1.3991.093 to 1.732+/- 0.319
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

42 career BF

xwOBA0.218
K%13.1%
BB%8.4%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

62 career BF

xwOBA0.213
K%14.5%
BB%6.4%
Barrel8.8%