Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Kochanowicz, Jack

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.0% K%
Range
10.2% to 22.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-17
16
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
31
Arsenal5 metrics
27
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-17
ERA preseason4.64
ERA current pace6.19
ERA rolling p505.53
Observed weight58%
ERA
4.16 4.81 5.53 6.25 6.90
FIP
3.88 4.27 4.71 5.14 5.53
K%
13.9% 15.3% 16.8% 18.4% 19.8%
BB%
8.5% 9.3% 10.2% 11.1% 11.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.49
22
ERA6.19
9
BB%12.0%
18 -36 vs proj
K%17.5%
16
xwOBA allowed0.359
13
Barrel allowed7.8%
48
Fastball velo95.9
74
Hard-hit allowed44.0%
21
Whiff%23.5%
55 +29 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-17
Changeup Stuff+104
61
Fastball Stuff+97
19
Mithrandir Stuff+98
23
Sinker Stuff+98
24
Slider Stuff+94
8
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kochanowicz, Jack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.359 2026-06-06: 0.3542026-06-07: 0.3542026-06-08: 0.3592026-06-09: 0.3592026-06-10: 0.3592026-06-11: 0.3592026-06-12: 0.3592026-06-13: 0.3592026-06-14: 0.3592026-06-15: 0.3592026-06-16: 0.3592026-06-17: 0.359 2026-06-06 2026-06-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kochanowicz, Jack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kochanowicz, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 37.8%Changeup: 23.6%4-Seam Fastball: 21.5%Slider: 17.2% SI38% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 38%CH 24%FF 21%SL 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kochanowicz, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 38% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 95.8 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 24% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.9 mphCH90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.2 mphFF96 mphSlider: 17% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 38.7% 413 98 qualified
CH 23.2% 248 104 qualified
FB 21.4% 229 97 qualified
SL 16.7% 178 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.327 vs 0.297 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 48%, 4-Seam Fastball 18%, Slider 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.86
K% Δ+0.015
Sample71.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.2----
Batters Faced637----
K%16.0%10.2% to 22.2%+/- 6.0%
BB%8.4%5.8% to 10.6%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%20.1%15.8% to 23.5%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.560.91 to 2.14+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3540.295 to 0.394+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.3% to 11.1%+/- 2.9%
ERA5.333.35 to 7.18+/- 1.91
FIP4.873.70 to 6.00+/- 1.15
WHIP1.5081.187 to 1.720+/- 0.267
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

485 career BF

xwOBA0.327
K%11.2%
BB%8.5%
Barrel8.5%
vs RHH

339 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%13.6%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.3%