Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

McDonald, Trevor

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.3% K%
Range
12.3% to 26.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Balanced reliever Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal4 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-16
ERA preseason3.35
ERA current pace4.15
ERA rolling p503.71
Observed weight45%
ERA
1.97 2.80 3.71 4.62 5.45
FIP
2.71 3.18 3.70 4.21 4.68
K%
16.9% 18.9% 21.1% 23.3% 25.4%
BB%
4.4% 5.6% 6.9% 8.1% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
39
ERA4.15
42
BB%7.6%
66
K%22.3%
48
xwOBA allowed0.323
42
Barrel allowed7.0%
57
Fastball velo93.8
40
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
34
Whiff%24.5%
62
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-16
Mithrandir Stuff+103
63
Sinker Stuff+103
57
Changeup Stuff+94
9
Slider Stuff+104
60
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McDonald, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.323 2026-06-05: 0.3082026-06-06: 0.3092026-06-07: 0.3092026-06-08: 0.3052026-06-09: 0.3052026-06-10: 0.3052026-06-11: 0.3052026-06-12: 0.3052026-06-13: 0.3052026-06-14: 0.3052026-06-15: 0.3232026-06-16: 0.323 2026-06-05 2026-06-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McDonald, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 42%42%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McDonald, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 56.1%Slider: 28.2%Changeup: 13.6%Cutter: 1.5%4-Seam Fastball: 0.5% SI56% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 56%SL 28%CH 14%FC 2%FF 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McDonald, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 56% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mphSlider: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.2 mphCH83 mphCutter: 2% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.8 mphFF95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 58.1% 297 103 qualified
SL 28.8% 147 104 limited sample
CH 12.7% 65 94 limited sample
FC 0.4% 2 27 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 50%, Sinker 39%, Changeup 6%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.25
K% Δ+0.011
Sample44.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings59.1----
Batters Faced240----
K%21.3%12.3% to 26.4%+/- 7.0%
BB%7.5%1.8% to 9.6%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%23.9%17.0% to 30.2%+/- 6.6%
HR/91.180.36 to 1.67+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3260.203 to 0.373+/- 0.085
Barrel% Allowed8.2%2.4% to 10.1%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.400.53 to 5.42+/- 2.45
FIP3.921.98 to 4.75+/- 1.38
WHIP1.1680.642 to 1.655+/- 0.507
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

28 career BF

xwOBA0.198
K%14.4%
BB%3.4%
Barrel3.5%
vs RHH

42 career BF

xwOBA0.184
K%15.8%
BB%2.5%
Barrel3.6%