Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Johnson, Seth

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.3% K%
Range
16.3% to 33.2%
Live Δ
--
Team PHI Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
49
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal5 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.99
ERA current pace7.15
ERA rolling p504.65
Observed weight21%
ERA
2.68 3.61 4.65 5.68 6.62
FIP
2.39 3.04 3.76 4.48 5.13
K%
18.5% 21.7% 25.3% 28.9% 32.1%
BB%
6.2% 7.9% 9.7% 11.6% 13.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+97
3
Fastball Stuff+104
62
Mithrandir Stuff+105
73
Sinker Stuff+94
11
Slider Stuff+111
96
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Johnson, Seth · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.3%Slider: 33.6%Sinker: 11.2%Curveball: 10.4%Split-Finger: 3.5% FF41% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 41%SL 34%SI 11%CU 10%FS 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 97.9 mphFF98 mphSlider: 34% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.2 mphSL88 mphSinker: 11% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 96.0 mphSI96 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 82.2 mphCU82 mphSplit-Finger: 3% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 91.3 mphFS91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.2% 71 104 limited sample
SL 32.5% 51 111 limited sample
SI 12.1% 19 94 limited sample
CB 10.2% 16 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 51%, Slider 34%, Split-Finger 7%.
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.1----
Batters Faced136----
K%25.3%16.3% to 33.2%+/- 8.4%
BB%9.2%3.6% to 11.9%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%25.0%15.4% to 32.1%+/- 8.3%
HR/91.320.65 to 2.20+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3020.143 to 0.328+/- 0.092
Barrel% Allowed7.7%2.8% to 10.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.892.33 to 7.14+/- 2.40
FIP3.672.31 to 5.67+/- 1.68
WHIP1.2820.867 to 1.627+/- 0.380
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

32 career BF

xwOBA0.168
K%18.8%
BB%6.1%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

40 career BF

xwOBA0.160
K%19.0%
BB%4.2%
Barrel5.0%