Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Johnson, Seth

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.3% K%
Range
16.3% to 33.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
28
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal5 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace6.35
ERA rolling p504.89
Observed weight40%
ERA
3.18 3.99 4.89 5.79 6.60
FIP
2.74 3.31 3.95 4.59 5.16
K%
19.9% 22.5% 25.3% 28.1% 30.6%
BB%
6.6% 7.9% 9.4% 10.9% 12.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.65
10
ERA6.35
7
BB%12.0%
18 -28 vs proj
K%25.9%
77
xwOBA allowed0.331
30 -41 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.5%
5 -41 vs proj
Fastball velo97.4
91
Hard-hit allowed44.8%
10
Whiff%25.4%
71
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+96
2
Fastball Stuff+104
67
Mithrandir Stuff+106
86
Sinker Stuff+98
22
Slider Stuff+111
98
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Johnson, Seth · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.331 2026-09-12: 0.3432026-09-13: 0.3362026-09-14: 0.3362026-09-18: 0.3212026-09-19: 0.3252026-09-20: 0.3252026-09-21: 0.3252026-09-22: 0.3252026-09-23: 0.3362026-09-24: 0.3362026-09-25: 0.3362026-09-26: 0.331 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Johnson, Seth · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 41%41%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.5%Slider: 32.4%Sinker: 9.4%Curveball: 5.5%Sweeper: 4.3%Split-Finger: 1.8% FF46% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 46%SL 32%SI 9%CU 6%ST 4%FS 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Johnson, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 97.8 mphFF98 mphSlider: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.4 mphSL88 mphSinker: 9% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.8 mphSI96 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 82.4 mphCU82 mphSweeper: 4% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 84.8 mphST85 mphSplit-Finger: 2% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 91.6 mphFS92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.1% 146 104 limited sample
SL 34.5% 107 111 limited sample
SI 11.9% 37 98 limited sample
CB 6.5% 20 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 51%, Slider 34%, Split-Finger 7%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.53
K% Δ+0.006
Sample34.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings29.6----
Batters Faced134----
K%25.3%16.3% to 33.2%+/- 8.4%
BB%9.2%3.6% to 11.9%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%25.0%15.4% to 32.1%+/- 8.3%
HR/91.290.64 to 2.16+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.2970.141 to 0.323+/- 0.091
Barrel% Allowed7.7%2.8% to 10.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.822.29 to 7.02+/- 2.37
FIP3.672.32 to 5.67+/- 1.68
WHIP1.2880.872 to 1.635+/- 0.382
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

32 career BF

xwOBA0.168
K%18.8%
BB%6.1%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

40 career BF

xwOBA0.160
K%19.0%
BB%4.2%
Barrel5.0%