Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Sheehan, Emmet

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.9% K%
Range
21.0% to 31.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal5 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace4.81
ERA rolling p504.45
Observed weight62%
ERA
3.39 3.89 4.45 5.01 5.51
FIP
3.08 3.52 4.01 4.50 4.94
K%
23.5% 24.7% 26.1% 27.5% 28.7%
BB%
6.3% 7.0% 7.8% 8.5% 9.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
63
ERA4.81
29
BB%7.5%
67
K%26.4%
76 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.306
59
Barrel allowed10.0%
20 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo94.5
50
Hard-hit allowed40.6%
39
Whiff%28.4%
86
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+105
73
Mithrandir Stuff+105
73
Slider Stuff+104
63
Changeup Stuff+108
88
Curveball Stuff+102
59
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sheehan, Emmet · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.306 2026-07-06: 0.3142026-07-07: 0.3082026-07-08: 0.3082026-07-09: 0.3082026-07-10: 0.3082026-07-11: 0.3082026-07-12: 0.3082026-07-13: 0.3082026-07-14: 0.3062026-07-15: 0.3062026-07-16: 0.3062026-07-17: 0.306 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sheehan, Emmet · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sheehan, Emmet · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.2%Slider: 30.8%Changeup: 16.1%Curveball: 9.9% FF43% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 43%SL 31%CH 16%CU 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sheehan, Emmet · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 43% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.5 mphFF94 mphSlider: 31% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.6 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.5 mphCH85 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 77.1 mphCU77 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.3% 431 105 qualified
SL 32.2% 328 104 qualified
CH 16.0% 163 108 limited sample
CB 9.4% 96 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Slider 31%, Changeup 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.11
K% Δ+0.025
Sample89.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.4----
Batters Faced290----
K%23.9%21.0% to 31.0%+/- 5.0%
BB%7.9%5.8% to 10.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%26.3%22.8% to 30.7%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.320.72 to 1.92+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.2960.257 to 0.316+/- 0.029
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.4% to 12.3%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.702.32 to 5.24+/- 1.46
FIP3.692.51 to 5.08+/- 1.28
WHIP1.1540.928 to 1.467+/- 0.270
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

262 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%22.7%
BB%9.1%
Barrel9.5%
vs RHH

337 career BF

xwOBA0.241
K%23.1%
BB%5.9%
Barrel8.1%