Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Sheehan, Emmet

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.9% K%
Range
21.0% to 31.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal5 metrics
69
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace4.79
ERA rolling p504.49
Observed weight68%
ERA
3.40 3.92 4.49 5.07 5.59
FIP
3.02 3.48 3.99 4.49 4.95
K%
24.7% 25.8% 27.1% 28.3% 29.4%
BB%
6.2% 6.8% 7.4% 8.1% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.18
76
ERA4.79
31
BB%7.1%
77
K%27.8%
85 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.292
76
Barrel allowed9.9%
15 -20 vs proj
Fastball velo94.3
49
Hard-hit allowed39.4%
42
Whiff%29.1%
90
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+104
63
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Slider Stuff+104
71
Changeup Stuff+106
79
Curveball Stuff+103
67
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sheehan, Emmet · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.292 2026-09-12: 0.3052026-09-13: 0.3052026-09-14: 0.2972026-09-18: 0.2982026-09-19: 0.2982026-09-20: 0.2982026-09-21: 0.2922026-09-22: 0.2922026-09-23: 0.2922026-09-24: 0.2922026-09-25: 0.2922026-09-26: 0.292 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sheehan, Emmet · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sheehan, Emmet · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.1%Slider: 29.6%Changeup: 15.4%Curveball: 11.8% FF43% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 43%SL 30%CH 15%CU 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sheehan, Emmet · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 43% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphSlider: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.6 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.4 mphCH85 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 77.7 mphCU78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.7% 569 104 qualified
SL 30.6% 407 104 qualified
CH 14.6% 194 106 limited sample
CB 12.2% 162 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Slider 31%, Changeup 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.09
K% Δ+0.038
Sample119.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.5----
Batters Faced294----
K%23.9%21.0% to 31.0%+/- 5.0%
BB%7.9%5.8% to 10.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%26.3%22.8% to 30.7%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.320.72 to 1.92+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.2960.257 to 0.316+/- 0.029
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.4% to 12.3%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.702.32 to 5.24+/- 1.46
FIP3.692.51 to 5.08+/- 1.28
WHIP1.1550.928 to 1.467+/- 0.270
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

262 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%22.7%
BB%9.1%
Barrel9.5%
vs RHH

337 career BF

xwOBA0.241
K%23.1%
BB%5.9%
Barrel8.1%