Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Bigge, Hunter

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.4% K%
Range
16.8% to 32.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
22
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
46
Arsenal3 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.53
ERA current pace6.98
ERA rolling p504.52
Observed weight29%
ERA
2.35 3.38 4.52 5.66 6.69
FIP
1.84 2.68 3.61 4.53 5.37
K%
18.1% 20.8% 23.9% 27.0% 29.8%
BB%
7.0% 8.6% 10.4% 12.2% 13.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.50
18
ERA6.98
4
BB%16.5%
1 -52 vs proj
K%20.6%
37 -34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.311
53
Barrel allowed4.9%
86 +59 vs proj
Fastball velo96.5
80
Hard-hit allowed37.7%
59
Whiff%26.9%
78
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+104
68
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+93
7
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bigge, Hunter · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.311 2026-07-05: 0.3112026-07-06: 0.3112026-07-07: 0.3112026-07-08: 0.3112026-07-09: 0.3112026-07-10: 0.3112026-07-11: 0.3112026-07-12: 0.3112026-07-13: 0.3112026-07-14: 0.3112026-07-15: 0.3112026-07-16: 0.311 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bigge, Hunter · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bigge, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.8%Slider: 41.4%Split-Finger: 5.9%Curveball: 1.9% FF51% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 51%SL 41%FS 6%CU 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bigge, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 96.5 mphFF96 mphSlider: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.8 mphSL89 mphSplit-Finger: 6% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.9 mphFS88 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 80.3 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 53.1% 152 104 limited sample
SL 44.8% 128 93 limited sample
CB 2.1% 6 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Slider 44%, Curveball 6%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.05
K% Δ-0.048
Sample21.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.5----
Batters Faced127----
K%25.4%16.8% to 32.8%+/- 8.0%
BB%8.5%2.7% to 11.5%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%29.3%20.4% to 35.5%+/- 7.5%
HR/91.390.10 to 2.36+/- 1.13
xwOBA Against0.3210.220 to 0.383+/- 0.082
Barrel% Allowed9.2%3.6% to 13.7%+/- 5.0%
ERA3.930.00 to 5.65+/- 2.83
FIP3.582.37 to 6.96+/- 2.29
WHIP1.1800.723 to 1.570+/- 0.423
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

74 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%21.4%
BB%6.1%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHH

75 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%20.5%
BB%5.1%
Barrel9.2%