Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Gordon, Tanner

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.4% K%
Range
14.2% to 25.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
27
Arsenal6 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.47
ERA current pace6.44
ERA rolling p505.47
Observed weight51%
ERA
4.03 4.71 5.47 6.22 6.90
FIP
3.83 4.22 4.65 5.08 5.47
K%
16.1% 17.7% 19.4% 21.1% 22.6%
BB%
3.6% 4.3% 5.1% 5.8% 6.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.58
11
ERA6.44
7
BB%4.9%
96
K%20.8%
38
xwOBA allowed0.340
25
Barrel allowed11.7%
7 -28 vs proj
Fastball velo92.6
24
Hard-hit allowed44.7%
14
Whiff%19.9%
24
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+104
65
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Changeup Stuff+106
78
Curveball Stuff+101
33
Sinker Stuff+98
24
Slider Stuff+104
67
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gordon, Tanner · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.340 2026-07-06: 0.3332026-07-07: 0.3382026-07-08: 0.3382026-07-09: 0.3382026-07-10: 0.3382026-07-11: 0.3382026-07-12: 0.3402026-07-13: 0.3402026-07-14: 0.3402026-07-15: 0.3402026-07-16: 0.3402026-07-17: 0.340 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gordon, Tanner · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gordon, Tanner · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.4%Slider: 27.0%Changeup: 20.3%Curveball: 9.4%Sinker: 5.0% FF38% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 38%SL 27%CH 20%CU 9%SI 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gordon, Tanner · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.7 mphFF93 mphSlider: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 84.4 mphCH84 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 80.6 mphCU81 mphSinker: 5% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.6% 224 104 qualified
SL 27.8% 185 104 limited sample
CH 21.5% 143 106 limited sample
CB 9.2% 61 101 limited sample
SI 8.0% 53 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Slider 26%, Changeup 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.23
K% Δ+0.014
Sample54.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings136.1----
Batters Faced616----
K%19.4%14.2% to 25.4%+/- 5.6%
BB%5.3%2.5% to 7.1%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%18.3%13.9% to 22.8%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.600.80 to 2.57+/- 0.88
xwOBA Against0.3370.286 to 0.380+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.1% to 11.9%+/- 3.4%
ERA5.213.21 to 7.27+/- 2.03
FIP4.612.93 to 5.25+/- 1.16
WHIP1.3621.136 to 1.660+/- 0.262
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

257 career BF

xwOBA0.302
K%14.8%
BB%4.2%
Barrel9.4%
vs RHH

240 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%15.9%
BB%3.3%
Barrel7.7%