Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Gordon, Tanner

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.4% K%
Range
14.2% to 25.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
25
Arsenal6 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.47
ERA current pace6.01
ERA rolling p505.50
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.99 4.71 5.50 6.30 7.02
FIP
3.81 4.22 4.67 5.13 5.54
K%
15.7% 16.8% 18.1% 19.3% 20.5%
BB%
4.0% 4.6% 5.2% 5.8% 6.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.65
9
ERA6.01
11
BB%5.1%
95
K%18.2%
23
xwOBA allowed0.345
17
Barrel allowed11.0%
8 -22 vs proj
Fastball velo92.6
23
Hard-hit allowed43.2%
18
Whiff%19.3%
22
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+105
76
Fastball Stuff+104
64
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Slider Stuff+104
66
Curveball Stuff+102
43
Sinker Stuff+97
19
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gordon, Tanner · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.345 2026-09-12: 0.3232026-09-13: 0.3282026-09-14: 0.3282026-09-18: 0.3352026-09-19: 0.3352026-09-20: 0.3352026-09-21: 0.3352026-09-22: 0.3352026-09-23: 0.3352026-09-24: 0.3352026-09-25: 0.3352026-09-26: 0.345 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gordon, Tanner · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gordon, Tanner · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 42.9%Changeup: 21.9%Slider: 21.0%Curveball: 9.6%Sinker: 2.6%Cutter: 2.0% FF43% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 43%CH 22%SL 21%CU 10%SI 3%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gordon, Tanner · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 43% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 92.7 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 84.5 mphCH85 mphSlider: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 81.3 mphCU81 mphSinker: 3% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mphCutter: 2% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.6 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 39.1% 475 104 qualified
SL 23.1% 281 104 qualified
CH 22.6% 274 105 qualified
CB 10.8% 131 102 limited sample
SI 4.4% 53 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Slider 26%, Changeup 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.80
K% Δ-0.012
Sample107.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings134.9----
Batters Faced610----
K%19.4%14.2% to 25.4%+/- 5.6%
BB%5.3%2.5% to 7.1%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%18.3%13.9% to 22.8%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.600.80 to 2.57+/- 0.88
xwOBA Against0.3370.286 to 0.380+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.1% to 11.9%+/- 3.4%
ERA5.213.21 to 7.27+/- 2.03
FIP4.612.93 to 5.25+/- 1.16
WHIP1.3621.136 to 1.660+/- 0.262
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

257 career BF

xwOBA0.302
K%14.8%
BB%4.2%
Barrel9.4%
vs RHH

240 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%15.9%
BB%3.3%
Barrel7.7%