Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Gordon, Tanner

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.4% K%
Range
14.2% to 25.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.47
ERA current pace5.84
ERA rolling p505.05
Observed weight42%
ERA
3.60 4.28 5.05 5.81 6.50
FIP
3.38 3.77 4.21 4.64 5.04
K%
16.1% 17.8% 19.7% 21.7% 23.4%
BB%
3.6% 4.4% 5.2% 6.0% 6.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.1%
94
Barrel allowed12.8%
5 -31 vs proj
Fastball velo92.8
25
Hard-hit allowed44.8%
18
K%22.3%
50 +23 vs proj
Whiff%21.5%
37 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.339
28
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+102
56
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gordon, Tanner · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2942026-05-19: 0.2942026-05-21: 0.3492026-05-23: 0.3492026-05-24: 0.3492026-05-25: 0.3492026-05-26: 0.3312026-05-28: 0.3312026-05-29: 0.3312026-05-30: 0.3312026-05-31: 0.3312026-06-01: 0.339 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gordon, Tanner · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gordon, Tanner · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.0%Slider: 27.2%Changeup: 21.1%Curveball: 10.3%Sinker: 8.3% MIX FF 33%SL 27%CH 21%CU 10%SI 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gordon, Tanner · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.3FFSL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.6SLCH: HB -0.1, IVB 2.4CHCU: HB 0.0, IVB 3.9CUSI: HB 0.5, IVB 1.5SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 32.8% 194 102 limited sample
SL 27.2% 161 105 limited sample
CH 22.3% 132 105 limited sample
CB 9.8% 58 100 limited sample
SI 7.9% 47 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Slider 26%, Changeup 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.63
K% Δ+0.029
Sample39.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings135.5----
Batters Faced613----
K%19.4%14.2% to 25.4%+/- 5.6%
BB%5.3%2.5% to 7.1%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%18.3%13.9% to 22.8%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.600.80 to 2.57+/- 0.88
xwOBA Against0.3370.286 to 0.380+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.1% to 11.9%+/- 3.4%
ERA5.213.21 to 7.27+/- 2.03
FIP4.612.93 to 5.25+/- 1.16
WHIP1.3621.136 to 1.660+/- 0.262
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

257 career BF

xwOBA0.302
K%14.8%
BB%4.2%
Barrel9.4%
vs RHH

240 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%15.9%
BB%3.3%
Barrel7.7%