Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Eisert, Brandon

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.4% K%
Range
16.3% to 27.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal5 metrics
26
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.44
ERA current pace5.65
ERA rolling p504.88
Observed weight36%
ERA
3.31 4.05 4.88 5.70 6.45
FIP
3.64 4.20 4.83 5.45 6.02
K%
19.6% 21.5% 23.6% 25.7% 27.5%
BB%
5.6% 6.8% 8.1% 9.4% 10.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
27
ERA5.65
15
BB%8.8%
47
K%25.7%
72
xwOBA allowed0.300
66
Barrel allowed10.1%
19 -20 vs proj
Fastball velo89.7
3
Hard-hit allowed40.4%
40
Whiff%27.8%
82
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+95
13
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+98
21
Sinker Stuff+94
11
Slider Stuff+102
49
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Eisert, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.300 2026-07-05: 0.2922026-07-06: 0.2782026-07-07: 0.2782026-07-08: 0.2782026-07-09: 0.2882026-07-10: 0.2882026-07-11: 0.2882026-07-12: 0.2882026-07-13: 0.2942026-07-14: 0.3002026-07-15: 0.3002026-07-16: 0.300 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Eisert, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Eisert, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.4%Slider: 32.6%Changeup: 22.2%Sinker: 7.3%Sweeper: 0.5% FF37% · 90 mphprimary pitch FF 37%SL 33%CH 22%SI 7%ST 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Eisert, Brandon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 89.9 mphFF90 mphSlider: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.0 mphSL84 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.8 mphCH85 mphSinker: 7% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.9 mphSI89 mphSweeper: 1% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 78.9 mphST79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.5% 114 100 limited sample
SL 27.2% 73 102 limited sample
CH 22.4% 60 95 limited sample
SI 7.8% 21 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.282 vs 0.307 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 36%, 4-Seam Fastball 32%, Changeup 29%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.43
K% Δ+0.024
Sample30.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.5----
Batters Faced280----
K%23.4%16.3% to 27.5%+/- 5.6%
BB%8.2%5.3% to 12.0%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%28.6%22.9% to 34.2%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.410.72 to 2.43+/- 0.86
xwOBA Against0.3040.259 to 0.350+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.0% to 13.6%+/- 4.3%
ERA4.222.10 to 6.38+/- 2.14
FIP4.112.80 to 6.03+/- 1.62
WHIP1.3601.133 to 1.832+/- 0.349
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

169 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%20.3%
BB%6.6%
Barrel10.1%
vs RHH

201 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%20.0%
BB%9.1%
Barrel10.9%