Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Imanaga, Shota

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
17.8% to 27.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
67
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal5 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace4.17
ERA rolling p504.06
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.10 3.55 4.06 4.57 5.02
FIP
4.01 4.23 4.47 4.72 4.94
K%
21.1% 22.2% 23.4% 24.6% 25.7%
BB%
4.6% 5.2% 5.8% 6.4% 7.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.13
76
ERA4.17
45
BB%6.3%
84
K%24.6%
65 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.301
64 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.5%
16 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo91.6
12
Hard-hit allowed37.8%
57
Whiff%29.7%
91 +44 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+106
78
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Curveball Stuff+102
48
Sinker Stuff+95
13
Slider Stuff+101
41
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Imanaga, Shota · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.301 2026-07-05: 0.2982026-07-06: 0.2982026-07-07: 0.2982026-07-08: 0.2982026-07-09: 0.2982026-07-10: 0.2982026-07-11: 0.2982026-07-12: 0.3012026-07-13: 0.3012026-07-14: 0.3012026-07-15: 0.3012026-07-16: 0.301 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Imanaga, Shota · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Imanaga, Shota · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.0%Split-Finger: 33.5%Sweeper: 14.4%Sinker: 6.7%Curveball: 2.9%Slider: 1.5% FF41% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 41%FS 34%ST 14%SI 7%CU 3%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Imanaga, Shota · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 91.8 mphFF92 mphSplit-Finger: 34% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 83.2 mphFS83 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 81.6 mphST82 mphSinker: 7% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.3 mphSI90 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 63″ drop, 74.5 mphCU75 mphSlider: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 65.8% 488 106 qualified
SL 21.6% 160 101 limited sample
SI 8.8% 65 95 limited sample
CB 3.9% 29 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.263 vs 0.286 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Split-Finger 31%, Sweeper 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.31
K% Δ+0.037
Sample116.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings74.4----
Batters Faced302----
K%20.9%17.8% to 27.0%+/- 4.6%
BB%5.3%2.8% to 7.1%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%22.6%19.5% to 27.7%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.551.02 to 2.37+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3160.276 to 0.348+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.9% to 12.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.872.49 to 5.07+/- 1.29
FIP4.293.28 to 4.53+/- 0.62
WHIP1.1610.843 to 1.460+/- 0.309
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

312 career BF

xwOBA0.263
K%22.7%
BB%4.3%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

1001 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%20.4%
BB%3.9%
Barrel10.3%