Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Leiter, Jack

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.8% K%
Range
18.3% to 30.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
36
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal7 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace5.29
ERA rolling p504.76
Observed weight61%
ERA
3.70 4.21 4.76 5.32 5.83
FIP
3.31 3.81 4.37 4.93 5.43
K%
21.1% 22.5% 24.0% 25.5% 26.9%
BB%
7.5% 8.3% 9.1% 9.9% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
35
ERA5.29
19
BB%9.5%
38
K%24.1%
62
xwOBA allowed0.337
27 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.2%
10 -32 vs proj
Fastball velo96.6
81
Hard-hit allowed41.1%
36
Whiff%24.2%
59
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+100
35
Fastball Stuff+110
93
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Slider Stuff+105
72
Curveball Stuff+102
41
Cutter Stuff+98
14
Sinker Stuff+104
64
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Leiter, Jack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.337 2026-07-06: 0.3372026-07-07: 0.3372026-07-08: 0.3372026-07-09: 0.3372026-07-10: 0.3372026-07-11: 0.3372026-07-12: 0.3372026-07-13: 0.3372026-07-14: 0.3372026-07-15: 0.3372026-07-16: 0.3372026-07-17: 0.337 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Leiter, Jack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leiter, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.1%Slider: 18.2%Changeup: 17.6%Cutter: 9.7%Curveball: 8.7%Sinker: 7.6% FF38% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 38%SL 18%CH 18%FC 10%CU 9%SI 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Leiter, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 96.7 mphFF97 mphSlider: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.5 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.0 mphCH90 mphCutter: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.0 mphFC93 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 81.8 mphCU82 mphSinker: 8% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.8 mphSI96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.3% 460 110 qualified
CH 17.9% 215 100 qualified
SL 17.8% 214 105 qualified
FC 10.1% 121 98 limited sample
CB 8.4% 101 102 limited sample
SI 7.6% 91 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Slider 23%, Changeup 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.37
K% Δ+0.004
Sample83.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings141.6----
Batters Faced619----
K%23.8%18.3% to 30.1%+/- 5.9%
BB%9.2%7.0% to 11.9%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%24.7%20.7% to 29.3%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.310.64 to 1.87+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3170.273 to 0.358+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed8.1%4.6% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.922.98 to 5.92+/- 1.47
FIP4.112.85 to 5.78+/- 1.47
WHIP1.3121.076 to 1.548+/- 0.236
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

448 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%20.5%
BB%10.1%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

449 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%21.1%
BB%8.0%
Barrel9.2%