Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Jones, Jared

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
19.3% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
66
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
69
Arsenal4 metrics
81
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.17
ERA current pace4.37
ERA rolling p504.24
Observed weight38%
ERA
3.27 3.73 4.24 4.76 5.22
FIP
3.38 3.61 3.87 4.13 4.36
K%
20.6% 22.3% 24.2% 26.2% 27.9%
BB%
5.5% 6.3% 7.2% 8.0% 8.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.15
74
ERA4.37
41
BB%7.6%
66
K%26.9%
79 +24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.296
68 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.4%
55 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo98.6
97
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
55
Whiff%29.2%
89 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+103
53
Fastball Stuff+106
81
Mithrandir Stuff+108
91
Slider Stuff+113
98
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Jones, Jared · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.296 2026-07-06: 0.3252026-07-07: 0.3252026-07-08: 0.3252026-07-09: 0.3252026-07-10: 0.2952026-07-11: 0.2952026-07-12: 0.2952026-07-13: 0.2952026-07-14: 0.2952026-07-15: 0.2962026-07-16: 0.2962026-07-17: 0.296 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Jones, Jared · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jones, Jared · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 42.5%Slider: 31.9%Changeup: 15.6%Curveball: 10.1% FF42% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 42%SL 32%CH 16%CU 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jones, Jared · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 98.6 mphFF99 mphSlider: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 90.1 mphSL90 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 93.4 mphCH93 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 85.6 mphCU86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.0% 64 106 limited sample
SL 32.2% 48 113 limited sample
CH 19.5% 29 103 limited sample
CB 5.4% 8 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.01
K% Δ+0.038
Sample34.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.4----
Batters Faced610----
K%23.1%19.3% to 29.5%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.1%5.1% to 9.3%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%25.7%22.8% to 30.9%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.510.94 to 2.05+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3160.266 to 0.332+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.7% to 12.1%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.332.78 to 5.47+/- 1.34
FIP4.062.88 to 4.22+/- 0.67
WHIP1.2490.950 to 1.394+/- 0.222
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

274 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%22.6%
BB%7.3%
Barrel9.1%
vs RHH

265 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%20.8%
BB%5.5%
Barrel8.8%