Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Jones, Jared

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
19.3% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 25 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
75
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
73
Arsenal5 metrics
82
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.17
ERA current pace4.17
ERA rolling p504.17
Observed weight63%
ERA
3.19 3.65 4.17 4.69 5.15
FIP
3.07 3.30 3.55 3.81 4.04
K%
24.2% 25.4% 26.8% 28.2% 29.4%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.4% 8.1% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
83
ERA4.17
47
BB%7.7%
68
K%29.3%
90 +31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.281
84 +38 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.6%
47 +16 vs proj
Fastball velo98.2
95
Hard-hit allowed38.2%
51
Whiff%29.8%
92 +19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+108
94
Slider Stuff+110
97
Changeup Stuff+101
46
Curveball Stuff+105
87
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Jones, Jared · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.281 2026-09-12: 0.2872026-09-13: 0.2872026-09-14: 0.2872026-09-18: 0.2872026-09-19: 0.2872026-09-20: 0.2872026-09-21: 0.2872026-09-22: 0.2872026-09-23: 0.2812026-09-24: 0.2812026-09-25: 0.2812026-09-26: 0.281 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Jones, Jared · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jones, Jared · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.8%Slider: 34.1%Changeup: 11.0%Curveball: 8.2% FF47% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 47%SL 34%CH 11%CU 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jones, Jared · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 98.2 mphFF98 mphSlider: 34% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.8 mphSL90 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 92.8 mphCH93 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 85.7 mphCU86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.7% 327 107 qualified
SL 32.3% 217 110 qualified
CH 13.0% 87 101 limited sample
CB 6.0% 40 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.16
K% Δ+0.062
Sample97.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.1----
Batters Faced605----
K%23.1%19.3% to 29.5%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.1%5.1% to 9.3%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%25.7%22.8% to 30.9%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.510.94 to 2.05+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3160.266 to 0.332+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.7% to 12.1%+/- 3.2%
ERA4.332.78 to 5.47+/- 1.34
FIP4.062.88 to 4.22+/- 0.67
WHIP1.2490.950 to 1.394+/- 0.222
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

274 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%22.6%
BB%7.3%
Barrel9.1%
vs RHH

265 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%20.8%
BB%5.5%
Barrel8.8%