Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Barco, Hunter

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
7.1% to 25.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
8
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
22
Arsenal5 metrics
37
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason2.48
ERA current pace7.64
ERA rolling p504.05
Observed weight30%
ERA
2.22 3.09 4.05 5.01 5.88
FIP
2.69 3.40 4.18 4.97 5.68
K%
14.2% 17.2% 20.7% 24.1% 27.2%
BB%
4.4% 6.4% 8.6% 10.8% 12.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.83
2
ERA7.64
1
BB%14.3%
5 -51 vs proj
K%19.0%
30
xwOBA allowed0.381
3 -51 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
74 +37 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
42
Hard-hit allowed41.8%
28
Whiff%18.0%
13 -52 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+88
4
Fastball Stuff+106
77
Mithrandir Stuff+100
30
Sinker Stuff+105
70
Slider Stuff+91
4
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Barco, Hunter · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.381 2026-09-12: 0.3812026-09-13: 0.3812026-09-14: 0.3812026-09-18: 0.3812026-09-19: 0.3812026-09-20: 0.3812026-09-21: 0.3812026-09-22: 0.3812026-09-23: 0.3812026-09-24: 0.3812026-09-25: 0.3812026-09-26: 0.381 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Barco, Hunter · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Barco, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.0%Slider: 24.2%Sinker: 17.1%Changeup: 8.9%Sweeper: 6.2%Split-Finger: 4.6% FF39% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 39%SL 24%SI 17%CH 9%ST 6%FS 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Barco, Hunter · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphSlider: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 82.4 mphSL82 mphSinker: 17% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 82.8 mphST83 mphSplit-Finger: 5% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.0 mphFS85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.7% 100 106 limited sample
SL 27.2% 72 91 limited sample
SI 26.0% 69 105 limited sample
CH 9.1% 24 88 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Split-Finger 28%, Slider 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.87
K% Δ-0.016
Sample21.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.5----
Batters Faced129----
K%20.7%7.1% to 25.4%+/- 9.1%
BB%8.3%0.1% to 11.4%+/- 5.7%
Whiff%24.7%7.2% to 29.9%+/- 11.4%
HR/91.270.00 to 1.47+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.3090.076 to 0.377+/- 0.150
Barrel% Allowed8.2%0.3% to 10.6%+/- 5.1%
ERA3.770.00 to 4.81+/- 2.41
FIP3.980.78 to 4.71+/- 1.96
WHIP1.2430.262 to 1.417+/- 0.577
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3 career BF

xwOBA0.080
K%8.0%
BB%0.1%
Barrel2.7%
vs RHH

9 career BF

xwOBA0.087
K%7.5%
BB%0.1%
Barrel3.3%