Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 52%, Slider 46%, 4-Seam Fastball 2%.
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026
Uribe, Abner
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team MIL
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
71
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.13 |
| ERA current pace | 2.56 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.90 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
ERA
1.28
2.05
2.90
3.76
4.52
FIP
2.29
2.79
3.35
3.92
4.42
K%
21.0%
23.2%
25.6%
28.0%
30.2%
BB%
7.1%
8.6%
10.3%
12.0%
13.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.02
89
ERA2.56
86
BB%9.4%
40
K%22.6%
50
-29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.266
91
+19 vs proj
Barrel allowed1.9%
99
+21 vs proj
Fastball velo98.6
97
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
79
Whiff%22.3%
45
-32 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Sinker Stuff+103
55
Mithrandir Stuff+105
72
Slider Stuff+101
40
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
66%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 64.4% | 235 | 103 | qualified |
| SL | 35.6% | 130 | 101 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.52 |
| K% Δ | -0.044 |
| Sample | 40.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 37.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 159 | -- | -- |
| K% | 27.0% | 21.6% to 36.0% | +/- 7.2% |
| BB% | 10.8% | 6.2% to 16.3% | +/- 5.0% |
| Whiff% | 26.8% | 22.8% to 33.6% | +/- 5.4% |
| HR/9 | 0.60 | 0.18 to 1.49 | +/- 0.65 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.290 | 0.215 to 0.342 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 5.8% | 2.5% to 10.1% | +/- 3.8% |
| ERA | 3.08 | 0.67 to 5.17 | +/- 2.25 |
| FIP | 3.14 | 2.27 to 5.23 | +/- 1.48 |
| WHIP | 1.292 | 1.004 to 1.692 | +/- 0.344 |
vs LHH
232 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.273 |
| K% | 26.4% |
| BB% | 13.1% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |
vs RHH
326 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.259 |
| K% | 27.0% |
| BB% | 9.0% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |