Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Montgomery, Mason

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
29.6% K%
Range
22.7% to 38.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
61
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
64
Arsenal4 metrics
79
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.06
ERA current pace4.13
ERA rolling p504.09
Observed weight41%
ERA
2.12 3.05 4.09 5.12 6.05
FIP
2.70 2.98 3.28 3.58 3.85
K%
26.8% 29.3% 32.0% 34.7% 37.1%
BB%
7.3% 8.9% 10.7% 12.4% 14.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
55
ERA4.13
47
BB%10.9%
25
K%34.5%
98
xwOBA allowed0.280
82 +23 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.9%
32
Fastball velo98.2
95
Hard-hit allowed38.9%
50
Whiff%31.0%
94
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+109
92
Curveball Stuff+102
53
Mithrandir Stuff+109
97
Slider Stuff+105
76
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 59%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Montgomery, Mason · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.280 2026-07-06: 0.2882026-07-07: 0.2842026-07-08: 0.2842026-07-09: 0.2842026-07-10: 0.2832026-07-11: 0.2832026-07-12: 0.2832026-07-13: 0.2802026-07-14: 0.2802026-07-15: 0.2802026-07-16: 0.2802026-07-17: 0.280 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Montgomery, Mason · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Montgomery, Mason · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 58.8%Slider: 17.4%Curveball: 16.1%Changeup: 3.8%Sinker: 3.8% FF59% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 59%SL 17%CU 16%CH 4%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Montgomery, Mason · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 59% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 98.2 mphFF98 mphSlider: 17% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.3 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 86.6 mphCU87 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.2 mphCH90 mphSinker: 4% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 98.2 mphSI98 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 65.8% 248 109 qualified
SL 15.6% 59 105 limited sample
CB 15.1% 57 102 limited sample
CH 1.9% 7 116 limited sample
SI 1.6% 6 122 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.279 vs 0.305 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 67%, Slider 33%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.13
K% Δ+0.050
Sample38.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.0----
Batters Faced156----
K%29.6%22.7% to 38.8%+/- 8.1%
BB%10.5%5.8% to 16.3%+/- 5.3%
Whiff%29.7%25.3% to 38.3%+/- 6.5%
HR/91.030.35 to 1.92+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3050.252 to 0.389+/- 0.069
Barrel% Allowed8.4%3.6% to 14.2%+/- 5.3%
ERA4.001.98 to 7.44+/- 2.73
FIP3.661.88 to 3.48+/- 0.80
WHIP1.4221.088 to 2.088+/- 0.500
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

99 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%29.1%
BB%10.8%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

158 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%26.6%
BB%10.9%
Barrel11.2%