Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Montgomery, Mason

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
29.5% K%
Range
22.7% to 38.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.06
ERA current pace3.48
ERA rolling p503.88
Observed weight30%
ERA
1.81 2.79 3.88 4.97 5.96
FIP
2.88 3.17 3.49 3.81 4.09
K%
24.5% 27.3% 30.4% 33.5% 36.3%
BB%
6.6% 8.5% 10.5% 12.5% 14.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.6%
27
Barrel allowed8.2%
43
Fastball velo98.3
96
Hard-hit allowed39.3%
50
K%30.8%
93
Whiff%33.3%
96
xwOBA allowed0.304
60
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+110
97
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

9 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Montgomery, Mason · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-23: 0.3232026-05-24: 0.3232026-05-25: 0.3102026-05-26: 0.3102026-05-28: 0.3102026-05-29: 0.3102026-05-30: 0.2982026-05-31: 0.2982026-06-01: 0.304 2026-05-23 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Montgomery, Mason · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Montgomery, Mason · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 63.2%Curveball: 18.2%Slider: 14.6%Changeup: 3.6%Sinker: 0.5% MIX FF 63%CU 18%SL 15%CH 4%SI 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Montgomery, Mason · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 0.8FFCU: HB 0.1, IVB 3.5CUSL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.7SLCH: HB -0.7, IVB 1.6CHSI: HB 0.1, IVB 0.9SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 66.0% 217 110 qualified
CB 17.0% 56 102 limited sample
SL 14.9% 49 108 limited sample
CH 1.5% 5 122 limited sample
SI 0.6% 2 111 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.279 vs 0.305 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 67%, Slider 33%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.55
K% Δ+0.012
Sample24.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.6----
Batters Faced158----
K%29.5%22.7% to 38.8%+/- 8.1%
BB%10.5%5.8% to 16.3%+/- 5.3%
Whiff%29.7%25.3% to 38.3%+/- 6.5%
HR/91.030.35 to 1.92+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3050.252 to 0.389+/- 0.069
Barrel% Allowed8.4%3.6% to 14.2%+/- 5.3%
ERA4.031.98 to 7.44+/- 2.73
FIP3.661.88 to 3.48+/- 0.80
WHIP1.4221.088 to 2.088+/- 0.500
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

99 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%29.1%
BB%10.8%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

158 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%26.6%
BB%10.9%
Barrel11.2%