Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Miller, Bryce

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.2% K%
Range
18.1% to 28.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
97
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
87
Arsenal4 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.80
ERA current pace2.19
ERA rolling p503.04
Observed weight47%
ERA
2.09 2.54 3.04 3.54 3.98
FIP
2.55 3.05 3.61 4.17 4.67
K%
23.0% 24.5% 26.3% 28.1% 29.7%
BB%
4.5% 5.1% 5.8% 6.5% 7.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.84
98
ERA2.19
94
BB%4.2%
99 +24 vs proj
K%30.2%
93 +45 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.236
98 +55 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.4%
70 +30 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
77
Hard-hit allowed28.6%
96
Whiff%24.4%
60
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Curveball Stuff+101
30
Fastball Stuff+115
99
Mithrandir Stuff+112
99
Slider Stuff+104
68
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Miller, Bryce · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.236 2026-07-05: 0.2262026-07-06: 0.2262026-07-07: 0.2262026-07-08: 0.2262026-07-09: 0.2262026-07-10: 0.2262026-07-11: 0.2362026-07-12: 0.2362026-07-13: 0.2362026-07-14: 0.2362026-07-15: 0.2362026-07-16: 0.236 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Miller, Bryce · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 29%29% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 42.6%Split-Finger: 24.4%Slider: 11.8%Sweeper: 6.3%Cutter: 5.5%Knuckle Curve: 4.9% FF43% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 43%FS 24%SL 12%ST 6%FC 5%KC 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 43% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 24% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.1 mphFS85 mphSlider: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.8 mphSL88 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 84.1 mphST84 mphCutter: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.8 mphFC91 mphKnuckle Curve: 5% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 83.1 mphKC83 mphSinker: 4% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.5 mphSI96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 56.2% 140 115 limited sample
SL 35.3% 88 104 limited sample
CB 5.6% 14 101 limited sample
SI 2.8% 7 109 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.314 vs 0.286 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Split-Finger 18%, Sinker 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.96
K% Δ+0.080
Sample57.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.3----
Batters Faced605----
K%22.2%18.1% to 28.5%+/- 5.2%
BB%7.0%5.5% to 9.3%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%22.5%19.4% to 26.6%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.330.76 to 2.01+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3200.280 to 0.350+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.8% to 12.0%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.152.97 to 5.64+/- 1.33
FIP4.172.78 to 5.77+/- 1.49
WHIP1.1900.955 to 1.442+/- 0.243
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

879 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%20.2%
BB%7.8%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

906 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%22.6%
BB%5.6%
Barrel8.1%