Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Miller, Bryce

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.2% K%
Range
18.1% to 28.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
63
Arsenal6 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.80
ERA current pace4.19
ERA rolling p504.06
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.07 3.54 4.06 4.58 5.06
FIP
3.19 3.72 4.31 4.89 5.42
K%
21.5% 22.7% 24.0% 25.2% 26.4%
BB%
6.4% 7.0% 7.6% 8.3% 8.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.18
75
ERA4.19
47
BB%7.8%
65
K%24.5%
68 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.297
71 +30 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.0%
41
Fastball velo95.8
73
Hard-hit allowed32.5%
89
Whiff%21.5%
42
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+113
99
Mithrandir Stuff+107
93
Slider Stuff+103
61
Curveball Stuff+99
13
Cutter Stuff+106
92
Sinker Stuff+94
10
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Miller, Bryce · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.297 2026-09-12: 0.2882026-09-13: 0.2882026-09-14: 0.2972026-09-18: 0.2972026-09-19: 0.2972026-09-20: 0.2972026-09-21: 0.2952026-09-22: 0.2952026-09-23: 0.2952026-09-24: 0.2952026-09-25: 0.2952026-09-26: 0.297 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Miller, Bryce · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.5%Split-Finger: 23.4%Slider: 11.4%Sinker: 8.6%Sweeper: 7.2%Cutter: 5.7% FF39% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 39%FS 23%SL 11%SI 9%ST 7%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 23% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.6 mphFS85 mphSlider: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.3 mphSL87 mphSinker: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 83.7 mphST84 mphCutter: 6% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 91.2 mphFC91 mphKnuckle Curve: 4% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 82.9 mphKC83 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 92.0 mphPO92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.5% 317 113 qualified
SL 30.0% 200 103 qualified
SI 13.0% 87 94 limited sample
CB 5.8% 39 99 limited sample
FC 3.6% 24 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.314 vs 0.286 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Split-Finger 18%, Sinker 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.04
K% Δ+0.023
Sample116.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.4----
Batters Faced597----
K%22.2%18.1% to 28.5%+/- 5.2%
BB%7.0%5.5% to 9.3%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%22.4%19.4% to 26.6%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.330.76 to 2.01+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3200.280 to 0.350+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.8% to 12.0%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.152.97 to 5.64+/- 1.33
FIP4.172.78 to 5.77+/- 1.49
WHIP1.1900.955 to 1.442+/- 0.243
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

879 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%20.2%
BB%7.8%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

906 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%22.6%
BB%5.6%
Barrel8.1%