Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Miller, Bryce

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.2% K%
Range
18.1% to 28.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.80
ERA current pace2.25
ERA rolling p503.42
Observed weight25%
ERA
2.36 2.86 3.42 3.97 4.47
FIP
2.53 3.09 3.71 4.34 4.90
K%
19.2% 21.2% 23.4% 25.6% 27.6%
BB%
4.8% 5.6% 6.4% 7.2% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%3.8%
98 +24 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.6%
92 +50 vs proj
Fastball velo96.7
85
Hard-hit allowed25.0%
98
K%25.3%
71 +21 vs proj
Whiff%24.1%
60 +15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.221
99 +56 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+112
99
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

1 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Miller, Bryce · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-06-01: 0.221 2026-06-01 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Miller, Bryce · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 25%25% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.6%Slider: 22.5%Split-Finger: 18.9%Sweeper: 6.2%Knuckle Curve: 4.6%Sinker: 2.3% MIX FF 46%SL 22%FS 19%ST 6%KC 5%SI 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.0, IVB 0.8FFSL: HB -0.1, IVB 2.5SLFS: HB -0.2, IVB 2.8FSST: HB -0.8, IVB 3.7STKC: HB 0.3, IVB 4.4KCSI: HB 1.1, IVB 1.2SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 56.2% 140 116 limited sample
SL 35.3% 88 104 limited sample
CB 5.6% 14 100 limited sample
SI 2.8% 7 109 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.314 vs 0.286 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Split-Finger 18%, Sinker 17%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.90
K% Δ+0.031
Sample21.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.0----
Batters Faced600----
K%22.2%18.1% to 28.5%+/- 5.2%
BB%7.0%5.5% to 9.3%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%22.4%19.4% to 26.6%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.330.76 to 2.01+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3200.280 to 0.350+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.8% to 12.0%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.152.97 to 5.64+/- 1.33
FIP4.172.78 to 5.77+/- 1.49
WHIP1.1900.955 to 1.442+/- 0.243
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

879 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%20.2%
BB%7.8%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

906 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%22.6%
BB%5.6%
Barrel8.1%