Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Lopez, Jacob

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
24.9% K%
Range
19.6% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal6 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.26
ERA current pace5.02
ERA rolling p504.79
Observed weight70%
ERA
3.39 4.05 4.79 5.53 6.20
FIP
3.89 4.39 4.95 5.50 6.00
K%
19.3% 20.3% 21.4% 22.5% 23.5%
BB%
8.7% 9.4% 10.2% 11.0% 11.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.56
15
ERA5.02
27
BB%11.0%
27 -30 vs proj
K%20.3%
37 -33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.295
73 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.0%
57
Fastball velo90.3
4
Hard-hit allowed31.7%
92
Whiff%22.3%
48
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+101
44
Fastball Stuff+100
31
Mithrandir Stuff+101
37
Slider Stuff+101
41
Changeup Stuff+103
58
Sinker Stuff+102
47
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lopez, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.295 2026-09-12: 0.2902026-09-13: 0.2902026-09-14: 0.2902026-09-18: 0.2902026-09-19: 0.2902026-09-20: 0.2902026-09-21: 0.2962026-09-22: 0.2962026-09-23: 0.2962026-09-24: 0.2962026-09-25: 0.2962026-09-26: 0.295 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lopez, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lopez, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.7%Slider: 33.8%Cutter: 20.0%Changeup: 8.7%Sinker: 2.9% FF35% · 90 mphprimary pitch FF 35%SL 34%FC 20%CH 9%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lopez, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 90.3 mphFF90 mphSlider: 34% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 76.2 mphSL76 mphCutter: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.2 mphFC86 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.4 mphCH82 mphSinker: 3% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.8 mphSI90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.6% 543 100 qualified
SL 32.8% 530 101 qualified
FC 20.6% 333 101 qualified
CH 9.6% 155 103 limited sample
SI 3.4% 55 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.240 vs 0.263 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Slider 31%, Cutter 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.07
K% Δ-0.045
Sample123.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.5----
Batters Faced297----
K%24.9%19.6% to 29.5%+/- 4.9%
BB%8.3%6.2% to 12.5%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%24.0%20.0% to 28.2%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.590.93 to 2.01+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3150.274 to 0.332+/- 0.029
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.1% to 10.7%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.952.60 to 6.28+/- 1.84
FIP4.113.16 to 5.93+/- 1.39
WHIP1.2941.016 to 1.621+/- 0.302
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

119 career BF

xwOBA0.240
K%23.4%
BB%7.5%
Barrel4.4%
vs RHH

386 career BF

xwOBA0.263
K%22.3%
BB%8.5%
Barrel7.0%