Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.26 |
| ERA current pace | 5.73 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 5.02 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 33.8% | 331 | 99 | qualified |
| SL | 30.4% | 297 | 99 | qualified |
| FC | 19.7% | 193 | 99 | limited sample |
| CH | 10.4% | 102 | 103 | limited sample |
| SI | 5.6% | 55 | 101 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
| ERA Δ | +1.78 |
| K% Δ | -0.090 |
| Sample | 51.7 IP |
positive regression
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 66.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 294 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.8% | 19.6% to 29.5% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 6.2% to 12.5% | +/- 3.2% |
| Whiff% | 24.0% | 20.0% to 28.2% | +/- 4.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.59 | 0.93 to 2.01 | +/- 0.54 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.315 | 0.274 to 0.332 | +/- 0.029 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.8% | 5.1% to 10.7% | +/- 2.8% |
| ERA | 3.95 | 2.60 to 6.28 | +/- 1.84 |
| FIP | 4.11 | 3.16 to 5.93 | +/- 1.39 |
| WHIP | 1.294 | 1.016 to 1.621 | +/- 0.302 |
| xwOBA | 0.240 |
| K% | 23.4% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |
| xwOBA | 0.263 |
| K% | 22.3% |
| BB% | 8.5% |
| Barrel | 7.0% |
