Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Anderson, Grant

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.1% K%
Range
17.7% to 31.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.76
ERA current pace2.82
ERA rolling p503.48
Observed weight29%
ERA
1.71 2.55 3.48 4.42 5.25
FIP
2.86 3.63 4.48 5.33 6.10
K%
17.5% 19.9% 22.6% 25.3% 27.7%
BB%
7.2% 8.7% 10.3% 12.0% 13.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.0%
15 -23 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.2%
57
Fastball velo92.9
25
Hard-hit allowed37.7%
60
K%18.0%
19 -50 vs proj
Whiff%21.7%
40 -33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.278
80 +25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+107
87
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Anderson, Grant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2962026-05-19: 0.2872026-05-21: 0.2872026-05-23: 0.2872026-05-24: 0.2872026-05-25: 0.2872026-05-26: 0.2872026-05-28: 0.2882026-05-29: 0.2872026-05-30: 0.2872026-05-31: 0.2782026-06-01: 0.278 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Anderson, Grant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Anderson, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.5%Sweeper: 34.3%Sinker: 21.4%Changeup: 2.8% MIX FF 41%ST 34%SI 21%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Anderson, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.5FFST: HB -0.4, IVB 3.2STSI: HB 0.7, IVB 2.6SICH: HB -1.0, IVB 3.3CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.8% 133 107 limited sample
SL 34.7% 113 104 limited sample
SI 21.8% 71 102 limited sample
CH 2.8% 9 115 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.309 vs 0.283 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 38%, 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Sinker 25%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.03
K% Δ-0.071
Sample25.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.1----
Batters Faced166----
K%25.1%17.7% to 31.7%+/- 7.0%
BB%9.4%6.5% to 14.6%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%26.3%21.1% to 32.9%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.320.53 to 2.57+/- 1.02
xwOBA Against0.3080.256 to 0.362+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed7.4%3.9% to 10.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.851.75 to 6.38+/- 2.31
FIP4.122.71 to 6.94+/- 2.12
WHIP1.2631.047 to 1.706+/- 0.330
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

221 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%22.0%
BB%12.1%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

390 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%22.1%
BB%8.0%
Barrel6.3%