Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Anderson, Grant

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.1% K%
Range
17.7% to 31.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal5 metrics
68
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.76
ERA current pace3.61
ERA rolling p503.70
Observed weight43%
ERA
2.04 2.83 3.70 4.57 5.35
FIP
2.98 3.70 4.49 5.29 6.00
K%
17.3% 19.4% 21.6% 23.9% 25.9%
BB%
7.9% 9.1% 10.5% 11.9% 13.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.21
68
ERA3.61
58
BB%11.7%
19 -21 vs proj
K%17.8%
17 -52 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.281
81 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.3%
71 +15 vs proj
Fastball velo93.1
26
Hard-hit allowed36.5%
65
Whiff%20.9%
33 -40 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+111
97
Fastball Stuff+105
71
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+101
43
Slider Stuff+103
56
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Anderson, Grant · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.281 2026-07-05: 0.2912026-07-06: 0.2912026-07-07: 0.2892026-07-08: 0.2892026-07-09: 0.2892026-07-10: 0.2832026-07-11: 0.2832026-07-12: 0.2832026-07-13: 0.2822026-07-14: 0.2812026-07-15: 0.2812026-07-16: 0.281 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Anderson, Grant · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Anderson, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.4%Sweeper: 36.0%Sinker: 23.1%Changeup: 2.5% FF38% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 38%ST 36%SI 23%CH 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Anderson, Grant · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 36% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 80.8 mphST81 mphSinker: 23% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 92.7 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.7% 175 105 limited sample
SL 35.7% 150 103 limited sample
SI 20.0% 84 101 limited sample
CH 2.6% 11 111 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.309 vs 0.283 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 38%, 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Sinker 25%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.24
K% Δ-0.073
Sample43.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.5----
Batters Faced163----
K%25.1%17.7% to 31.7%+/- 7.0%
BB%9.4%6.5% to 14.6%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%26.3%21.1% to 32.9%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.320.53 to 2.57+/- 1.02
xwOBA Against0.3080.256 to 0.362+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed7.4%3.9% to 10.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.851.75 to 6.38+/- 2.31
FIP4.092.71 to 6.94+/- 2.12
WHIP1.2631.047 to 1.706+/- 0.330
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

221 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%22.0%
BB%12.1%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

390 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%22.1%
BB%8.0%
Barrel6.3%