Smith, Dylan
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.72 |
| ERA current pace | 0.00 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.67 |
| Observed weight | 1% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 55.6% | 5 | 96 | limited sample |
| SI | 33.3% | 3 | 25 | limited sample |
| FB | 11.1% | 1 | 127 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 32.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 131 | -- | -- |
| K% | 19.1% | 5.8% to 22.0% | +/- 8.1% |
| BB% | 9.1% | 4.4% to 13.6% | +/- 4.6% |
| Whiff% | 22.7% | 14.1% to 30.4% | +/- 8.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.15 | 0.00 to 1.32 | +/- 0.66 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.342 | 0.195 to 0.400 | +/- 0.103 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.5% | 3.1% to 11.3% | +/- 4.1% |
| ERA | 4.46 | 0.09 to 5.25 | +/- 2.58 |
| FIP | 4.28 | 2.59 to 5.88 | +/- 1.65 |
| WHIP | 1.334 | 0.563 to 1.645 | +/- 0.541 |
20 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.192 |
| K% | 5.1% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |
32 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.186 |
| K% | 5.5% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 4.9% |