Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Smith, Dylan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.1% K%
Range
5.8% to 22.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
51
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
51
Arsenal5 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
27
ERA3.50
69
BB%12.1%
17
K%25.4%
73
xwOBA allowed0.301
66
Barrel allowed5.7%
79
Fastball velo95.6
68
Hard-hit allowed46.2%
5
Whiff%22.8%
51
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+106
79
Curveball Stuff+106
97
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+83
1
Slider Stuff+103
59
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Smith, Dylan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.301 2026-09-12: 0.3062026-09-13: 0.3032026-09-14: 0.3032026-09-18: 0.3082026-09-19: 0.3082026-09-20: 0.3082026-09-21: 0.3042026-09-22: 0.3042026-09-23: 0.3042026-09-24: 0.3052026-09-25: 0.3052026-09-26: 0.301 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Smith, Dylan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 56.8%Sweeper: 22.8%Sinker: 8.4%Curveball: 6.1%Split-Finger: 5.9% FF57% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 57%ST 23%SI 8%CU 6%FS 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 57% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.6 mphFF96 mphSweeper: 23% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.0 mphST86 mphSinker: 8% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mphSplit-Finger: 6% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.0 mphFS86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 65.2% 221 106 qualified
SL 20.4% 69 103 limited sample
SI 8.0% 27 83 limited sample
CB 6.5% 22 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Sweeper 32%, Split-Finger 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample38.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.6----
Batters Faced127----
K%19.1%5.8% to 22.0%+/- 8.1%
BB%9.1%4.4% to 13.6%+/- 4.6%
Whiff%22.7%14.1% to 30.4%+/- 8.2%
HR/91.150.00 to 1.32+/- 0.66
xwOBA Against0.3420.196 to 0.400+/- 0.102
Barrel% Allowed8.5%3.1% to 11.3%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.450.08 to 5.26+/- 2.59
FIP4.282.59 to 5.88+/- 1.65
WHIP1.3340.564 to 1.645+/- 0.541
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

20 career BF

xwOBA0.192
K%5.1%
BB%6.5%
Barrel5.0%
vs RHH

32 career BF

xwOBA0.186
K%5.5%
BB%5.6%
Barrel4.9%