Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Vesia, Alex

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
28.0% K%
Range
23.0% to 38.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.23
ERA current pace2.41
ERA rolling p503.01
Observed weight27%
ERA
1.40 2.16 3.01 3.85 4.62
FIP
1.58 2.51 3.53 4.56 5.49
K%
25.2% 28.1% 31.3% 34.5% 37.4%
BB%
7.8% 9.4% 11.2% 13.0% 14.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%13.5%
8 -21 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.2%
88 +60 vs proj
Fastball velo91.3
10
Hard-hit allowed29.2%
94
K%32.6%
95
Whiff%33.3%
96 +21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.246
94 +26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+102
56
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 54%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

8 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Vesia, Alex · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-24: 0.2482026-05-25: 0.2482026-05-26: 0.2492026-05-28: 0.2492026-05-29: 0.2492026-05-30: 0.2492026-05-31: 0.2462026-06-01: 0.246 2026-05-24 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Vesia, Alex · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 40%40%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 29%29% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vesia, Alex · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 54.2%Slider: 33.9%Changeup: 12.0% MIX FF 54%SL 34%CH 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vesia, Alex · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 0.9FFSL: HB -0.1, IVB 3.0SLCH: HB -0.8, IVB 2.1CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 56.8% 187 102 limited sample
SL 32.5% 107 104 limited sample
CH 10.6% 35 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.249 vs 0.284 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 58%, Slider 36%, Changeup 6%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.96
K% Δ+0.046
Sample22.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.5----
Batters Faced168----
K%28.0%23.0% to 38.9%+/- 8.0%
BB%10.4%6.4% to 15.0%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%26.6%21.7% to 32.5%+/- 5.4%
HR/91.330.60 to 2.23+/- 0.82
xwOBA Against0.2930.237 to 0.351+/- 0.057
Barrel% Allowed9.5%5.0% to 15.7%+/- 5.3%
ERA3.371.39 to 5.54+/- 2.07
FIP4.092.19 to 7.21+/- 2.51
WHIP1.1780.918 to 1.547+/- 0.315
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

505 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%31.1%
BB%9.0%
Barrel10.5%
vs RHH

767 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%28.1%
BB%11.2%
Barrel11.9%