Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Sisk, Evan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.3% K%
Range
16.8% to 31.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
76
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
70
Arsenal6 metrics
14
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.59
ERA current pace2.23
ERA rolling p503.06
Observed weight39%
ERA
1.23 2.10 3.06 4.03 4.90
FIP
1.95 2.60 3.33 4.06 4.71
K%
20.1% 22.4% 25.0% 27.5% 29.8%
BB%
6.0% 7.6% 9.3% 11.1% 12.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
59
ERA2.23
92
BB%8.5%
53 +29 vs proj
K%28.1%
85
xwOBA allowed0.265
92 +28 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.3%
96 +38 vs proj
Fastball velo91.3
9
Hard-hit allowed31.1%
93
Whiff%23.3%
53 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+95
11
Curveball Stuff+101
35
Fastball Stuff+94
9
Mithrandir Stuff+95
12
Sinker Stuff+95
13
Slider Stuff+91
4
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sisk, Evan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.265 2026-07-06: 0.2652026-07-07: 0.2652026-07-08: 0.2652026-07-09: 0.2652026-07-10: 0.2652026-07-11: 0.2652026-07-12: 0.2652026-07-13: 0.2652026-07-14: 0.2652026-07-15: 0.2652026-07-16: 0.2652026-07-17: 0.265 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sisk, Evan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sisk, Evan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 28.7%Curveball: 26.4%Sweeper: 18.4%4-Seam Fastball: 17.0%Changeup: 9.5% SI29% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 29%CU 26%ST 18%FF 17%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sisk, Evan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 29% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.1 mphSI91 mphCurveball: 26% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 77.3 mphCU77 mphSweeper: 18% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 80.1 mphST80 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.6 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.6 mphCH84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 32.1% 142 95 limited sample
CB 24.2% 107 101 limited sample
SL 18.5% 82 91 limited sample
FB 14.2% 63 94 limited sample
CH 11.1% 49 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 31%, Sweeper 27%, 4-Seam Fastball 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.46
K% Δ+0.018
Sample34.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings29.4----
Batters Faced132----
K%26.3%16.8% to 31.6%+/- 7.4%
BB%11.0%4.9% to 15.2%+/- 5.1%
Whiff%26.4%18.3% to 33.3%+/- 7.5%
HR/91.020.00 to 1.52+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3020.135 to 0.355+/- 0.110
Barrel% Allowed7.3%2.3% to 10.5%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.690.91 to 5.98+/- 2.54
FIP3.591.42 to 5.24+/- 1.91
WHIP1.3710.934 to 1.734+/- 0.400
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

45 career BF

xwOBA0.159
K%22.0%
BB%8.9%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHH

59 career BF

xwOBA0.177
K%19.1%
BB%8.4%
Barrel5.0%