Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Sabrowski, Erik

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
30.0% K%
Range
23.4% to 38.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
72
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
73
Arsenal4 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason2.79
ERA current pace2.78
ERA rolling p502.78
Observed weight48%
ERA
0.84 1.76 2.78 3.81 4.73
FIP
2.22 2.66 3.14 3.63 4.07
K%
28.5% 30.6% 33.0% 35.3% 37.4%
BB%
10.4% 12.0% 13.8% 15.6% 17.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.18
75
ERA2.78
86
BB%14.7%
4
K%36.7%
99
xwOBA allowed0.251
97 +25 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.8%
77 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
44
Hard-hit allowed34.0%
82
Whiff%29.3%
91
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+103
58
Mithrandir Stuff+104
64
Curveball Stuff+103
53
Slider Stuff+104
73
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 64%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sabrowski, Erik · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.251 2026-09-12: 0.2562026-09-13: 0.2562026-09-14: 0.2542026-09-18: 0.2542026-09-19: 0.2542026-09-20: 0.2542026-09-21: 0.2542026-09-22: 0.2542026-09-23: 0.2522026-09-24: 0.2522026-09-25: 0.2522026-09-26: 0.251 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sabrowski, Erik · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sabrowski, Erik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 63.9%Curveball: 18.3%Slider: 17.8% FF64% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 64%CU 18%SL 18% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sabrowski, Erik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 64% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 18% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 81.8 mphCU82 mphSlider: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.6 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 64.8% 355 103 qualified
CB 18.8% 103 103 limited sample
SL 16.4% 90 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.216 vs 0.247 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 68%, Slider 17%, Curveball 15%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.64
K% Δ+0.067
Sample51.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.1----
Batters Faced136----
K%30.0%23.4% to 38.6%+/- 7.6%
BB%12.5%6.7% to 18.6%+/- 5.9%
Whiff%28.1%23.6% to 35.6%+/- 6.0%
HR/91.010.37 to 1.72+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.2960.214 to 0.335+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed7.0%2.4% to 10.1%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.420.00 to 5.49+/- 2.75
FIP3.442.08 to 4.69+/- 1.31
WHIP1.2340.859 to 1.650+/- 0.396
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

87 career BF

xwOBA0.216
K%30.0%
BB%11.5%
Barrel3.2%
vs RHH

117 career BF

xwOBA0.247
K%26.9%
BB%13.9%
Barrel4.5%