Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Criswell, Cooper

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.3% K%
Range
14.2% to 23.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal6 metrics
72
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.17
ERA current pace3.38
ERA rolling p503.82
Observed weight44%
ERA
2.60 3.18 3.82 4.46 5.04
FIP
2.96 3.38 3.85 4.31 4.73
K%
15.4% 16.9% 18.5% 20.1% 21.6%
BB%
5.8% 6.7% 7.7% 8.6% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
26
ERA3.38
73
BB%7.9%
63
K%19.6%
33 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.297
71 +22 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.4%
90 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo90.7
6
Hard-hit allowed38.5%
49
Whiff%19.4%
23 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+110
95
Cutter Stuff+99
26
Fastball Stuff+102
47
Mithrandir Stuff+106
86
Sinker Stuff+106
81
Slider Stuff+109
94
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Criswell, Cooper · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.297 2026-09-12: 0.2932026-09-13: 0.2872026-09-14: 0.2872026-09-18: 0.2892026-09-19: 0.2892026-09-20: 0.2892026-09-21: 0.2962026-09-22: 0.2962026-09-23: 0.2962026-09-24: 0.2932026-09-25: 0.2932026-09-26: 0.297 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Criswell, Cooper · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Criswell, Cooper · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 26.9%Sinker: 26.9%Cutter: 22.0%Sweeper: 17.4%4-Seam Fastball: 6.1%Slurve: 0.6% CH27% · 85 mphprimary pitch CH 27%SI 27%FC 22%ST 17%FF 6%SV 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Criswell, Cooper · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 27% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 85.2 mphCH85 mphSinker: 27% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 90.7 mphSI91 mphCutter: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.1 mphFC87 mphSweeper: 17% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 78.3 mphST78 mph4-Seam Fastball: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.7 mphFF91 mphSlurve: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.1 mphSV82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 28.0% 129 106 limited sample
CH 26.3% 121 110 limited sample
FC 19.1% 88 99 limited sample
SL 18.7% 86 109 limited sample
FB 7.8% 36 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 32%, Cutter 30%, Sinker 26%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.80
K% Δ+0.023
Sample43.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.2----
Batters Faced288----
K%17.3%14.2% to 23.5%+/- 4.7%
BB%7.4%4.5% to 9.7%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%16.6%13.6% to 22.6%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.420.86 to 2.07+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3140.264 to 0.346+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed7.4%4.7% to 9.8%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.182.43 to 5.85+/- 1.71
FIP4.533.08 to 5.57+/- 1.24
WHIP1.2921.042 to 1.598+/- 0.278
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

347 career BF

xwOBA0.302
K%15.1%
BB%7.3%
Barrel5.6%
vs RHH

403 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%16.1%
BB%5.6%
Barrel6.5%