Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Criswell, Cooper

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.3% K%
Range
14.2% to 23.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 30 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal6 metrics
72
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.17
ERA current pace3.52
ERA rolling p503.93
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.68 3.27 3.93 4.58 5.17
FIP
2.96 3.39 3.86 4.34 4.77
K%
15.3% 16.9% 18.7% 20.4% 22.0%
BB%
4.9% 5.8% 6.8% 7.7% 8.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
55
ERA3.52
62
BB%5.6%
91 +21 vs proj
K%20.3%
35 +20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.286
77 +27 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.8%
87 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo91.0
6
Hard-hit allowed37.5%
60
Whiff%20.4%
28 +22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+109
91
Cutter Stuff+100
35
Fastball Stuff+101
43
Mithrandir Stuff+107
86
Sinker Stuff+106
83
Slider Stuff+110
95
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Criswell, Cooper · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.286 2026-07-05: 0.2862026-07-06: 0.2862026-07-07: 0.2862026-07-08: 0.2862026-07-09: 0.2862026-07-10: 0.2862026-07-11: 0.2862026-07-12: 0.2862026-07-13: 0.2862026-07-14: 0.2862026-07-15: 0.2862026-07-16: 0.286 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Criswell, Cooper · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Criswell, Cooper · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 27.0%Sinker: 25.1%Cutter: 23.9%Sweeper: 18.2%4-Seam Fastball: 5.1%Slurve: 0.7% CH27% · 85 mphprimary pitch CH 27%SI 25%FC 24%ST 18%FF 5%SV 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Criswell, Cooper · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 27% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 85.4 mphCH85 mphSinker: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 91.0 mphSI91 mphCutter: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.2 mphFC87 mphSweeper: 18% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 78.6 mphST79 mph4-Seam Fastball: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 91.0 mphFF91 mphSlurve: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.1 mphSV82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 27.4% 104 109 limited sample
SI 26.9% 102 106 limited sample
SL 19.3% 73 110 limited sample
FC 19.3% 73 100 limited sample
FB 7.1% 27 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 32%, Cutter 30%, Sinker 26%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.66
K% Δ+0.030
Sample34.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.3----
Batters Faced284----
K%17.3%14.2% to 23.5%+/- 4.7%
BB%7.4%4.5% to 9.7%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%16.6%13.6% to 22.6%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.420.86 to 2.07+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3140.264 to 0.346+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed7.4%4.7% to 9.8%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.182.43 to 5.85+/- 1.71
FIP4.533.08 to 5.57+/- 1.24
WHIP1.2921.042 to 1.597+/- 0.277
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

347 career BF

xwOBA0.302
K%15.1%
BB%7.3%
Barrel5.6%
vs RHH

403 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%16.1%
BB%5.6%
Barrel6.5%